Ralph's Tropical Weather-RTW: ...12Z SEVERAL MODELS TAKING AN ABOUT FACE BACK TO THE RIGHT WITHIN THE 5-DAY TIME FRAME...

ASCAT SATELLITE PASS EARLIER SHOWED AN ELONGATED CENTER OF CIRCULATION WITH INVEST 98L. MODELS SOME EALIER MORNING MODELS THAT WERE FAR TO THE LEFT HAVE MADE AN ABOUT FACE TO THE RIGHT AGAIN OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AS THE PREVIOUS GFS AND EURO MODEL RUN EARLIER THIS WEEK.

NOW THE 12Z ICON WHICH WAS OVER THE GULF IS BACK TO THE RIGHT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CMC AND THE EPS MEAN ENSEMBLE AND NOW THE EURO IS BACK OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AGAIN, THAT MAKES 4 MODELS AGREEING.

MODEL ACCURACY WITHIN A 5-DAY TIME FRAME IS HIGH, AND LOW BEYOND 5 DAYS.

I AM NOT TRYING TO BE AN ALARMIST BUT JUST TO GIVE YOU A HEADS UP THAT THIS COULD BECOME A REALITY IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND THIS WAY.

REMEMBER TO ALWAYS MONITOR NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER UPDATES.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Fiona, located several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda, and on 
Tropical Storm Gaston, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of 
the Azores. 

1. Southeastern Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical 
wave located over the southeastern Caribbean Sea.  Although 
upper-level winds are currently inhibiting development, the 
environment is forecast to gradually become more favorable in a 
couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form at that 
time.  The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward across 
the eastern Caribbean Sea during the next day or two, and be over 
the central Caribbean Sea this weekend.  Regardless of development, 
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely to affect the 
Windward Islands, northern Venezuela, and the ABC island chain 
today. These impacts are likely to spread to northeastern Colombia 
later this evening.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms located near the west coast of Africa are 
associated with a tropical wave that has emerged over the warm 
waters of the far eastern Atlantic.  Environmental conditions are 
forecast to be conducive for some development, and a tropical 
depression could form by this weekend while the system moves slowly 
northward, between west Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

3. East Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles 
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Despite marginal 
environmental conditions, some slow development of this system is 
possible over the next several days while it moves slowly 
northwestward or northward over the tropical Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Bucci