INVEST 98L REMAINS DISORGANIZED DUE TO FIONA'S UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND PROXIMTY TO LAND

INVEST 98L STILL STRUGGLING WITH FIONA'S UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WIND SHEAR AND THE PROXIMTY TO NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA COAST.  

AS FIONA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY AND 98L MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, THEN WE COULD SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT OCCUR AS MODELS ARE FORECASTING.

AS FOR THE MODEL TRACKS THEY ARE NOT RELIABLE AT THIS TIME.  WITHOUT A CENTER OF CIRCULATION WE HAVE NOTHING TO GO ON AT THIS TIME.  

MODELS THAT WERE OVER FLORIDA ARE NOW OUT OVER THE GULF, AND THE EURO OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA.  

THE CMC (GEM) CANADIAN MODEL THAT WAS OFF TO THE LEFT AND PERFOMED HORRIBLY WITH FIONA'S FORECAST TRACK, IS NOW OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA, LIKE THE GFS AND EURO WAS A FEW DAYS AGO.   

WHAT I DO KNOW IS THAT THERE IS A FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER FLORIDA AND THE WPC FRONT ANALYSIS CHART ANIMATION I CREATED SHOWS A WEAK 98L ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST BLOCKED BY THE STATIONARY FRONT.

SO FOR NOW WE WATCH AND BE READY IN CASE A HURRICANE TRACKS TOWARD YOUR AREA.

RTW

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Fiona, located several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda, and on 
Tropical Storm Gaston, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of 
the Azores. 

1. Southeastern Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical 
wave located over the southeastern Caribbean Sea.  Although 
upper-level winds are currently inhibiting development, the 
environment is forecast to gradually become more favorable in a 
couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form at that 
time.  The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward across 
the eastern Caribbean Sea during the next day or two, and be over 
the central Caribbean Sea this weekend.  Regardless of development, 
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely to affect the 
Windward Islands, northern Venezuela, and the ABC island chain 
today. These impacts are likely to spread to northeastern Colombia 
later this evening.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms located near the west coast of Africa are 
associated with a tropical wave that has emerged over the warm 
waters of the far eastern Atlantic.  Environmental conditions are 
forecast to be conducive for some development, and a tropical 
depression could form by this weekend while the system moves slowly 
northward, between west Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

3. East Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles 
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Despite marginal 
environmental conditions, some slow development of this system is 
possible over the next several days while it moves slowly 
northwestward or northward over the tropical Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Bucci

12Z LATEST GUIDANCE MODEL

06Z GFS ENSEMBLE MODEL WITH AVERAGE MEAN (BLACK) LINE.

THE 00Z GFS SHOWS NOW A TRACK OVER THE GULF AND TOW LOUSIANA.

00Z ECMWF (EURO) MODEL STILL ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE TRACK AND TORWAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND WHERE MICHAEL MADE LANDFALL.

THE 00Z CMC (GEM) CANADIAN MODEL IS NOT ON THE RIGHT SIE OF THE TRACK AND OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA MIMICING PREVIOUS GFS AND EURO FORECAST.

THE 00Z ICON IS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF SIMILAR TO A PREVIOUS CMC MODEL RUN.  ONLY DIFFERENCE IS,  IT WAS FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MODELS

WIND SHEAR OVER INVEST 98L (RED) LINES UNFAVORABLE.  MAP BELOW (BLUE) WIND BARB ARROWS IS WIND SHEAR BEING PRODUCED BY FIONA'S UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.