...MODELS ARE STILL TO THE LEFT OVER THE FLORIDA PAN HANDLE ACCEPT FOR THE EURO AND ICON THAT ARE A TAD TO THE RIGHT...

 

MODELS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK, AND AWAY FROM A LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST CENTRAL COAST.  MODEL ARE FOCUSED NOW ON A NORTHERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  WE SEE IF NHC FORECAST ALSO SHIFTS A TAD WEST.  THERE ARE TWO MODELS THE 12Z EURO AND ICON WHICH ARE A TAD CLOSER TO THE CENTRAL WEST COAST.  

ALTHOUGH MIAMI-DADE CONTINUES BE OUT OF THE CONE OF ERROR WE CONTINUE TO BE READY AND MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF IAN.  IT ALL DEPENDS ON THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND HOW STRONG THEY ARE OR HOW WEAK.  STRONGER TROUGH AS IAN MOVES OVER CUBA THEN A QUICKER TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND THIS WOULD AFFECT POINTS SOUTH SUCH AS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD.  WEAKER TROUGH THEN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OVER THE WARM OF THE GULF AND RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

SO FOR NOW WE JUST WATCH AND BE PREPARED JUST IN CASE.  AS FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE YOU NEED TO BE PREPARING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR STORM AFFECTING YOUR AREA.

RTW

...IAN EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

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5:00 PM EDT Sat Sep 24
Location: 14.3°N 77.0°W
Moving: W at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph

 

NAVY MODEL FLORIDA BIG BEND LANDFALL

CANADIAN MODEL TAD WEST FLORIDA PAN HANDLE

EPS FLORIDA BIG BEND

EURO BACK TO THE RIGHT AND A CENTRAL FLORIDA LANDFALL THEN TO THE NORTH

GFS WEST PAN HANDLE

ICON BACK CLOSER TO THE RIGHT WITH THE EURO MODEL