Wednesday, August 8, 2018
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY UPDATE AUG 8 2018... 1056 AM EDT
073 WTNT34 KNHC 081434 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 08 2018 ...DEBBY FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.2N 48.3W ABOUT 1150 MI...1855 KM WNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 41.2 North, longitude 48.3 West. Debby is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today and tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Debby is forecast to dissipate on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) to the north and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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TROPICAL OUTLOOK AUG 8, 2018...10
932 AXNT20 KNHC 081159 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 759 AM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Sub-tropical Storm Debby is located near 40.8N/48.8W as of 08/0900 UTC. Estimated minimum pressure is 1003 mb moving north at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. A turn toward the northeast is expected by Wednesday night. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. ...Caribbean Gale Warning... A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean from 11N-13N between 70W-76W. The gale is forecast to end on 08/1500 UTC. The gale is forecast to resume on 09/0000 UTC, and then end again on 09/1500 UTC. Please see the Atlantic High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis in the eastern Atlantic extends from 20N28W to 06N31W, moving W at 5-10 kt. The northern part of the wave is affected by Saharan dry air intrusion. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-13N between 28W-34W. A tropical wave axis in the central Atlantic extends from 19N45W to 07N47W, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave has a well defined inverted V surface pattern noted on satellite imagery. The wave also has a large 700 mb trough associated with the wave. The northern part of the wave is affected by Saharan dry air intrusion. No significant convection is observed with this wave at this time. A low amplitude tropical wave has entered the southeast Caribbean extending its axis from 12N62W to 04N62W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave continues to be affected by intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust. This wave is forecast to dissipate over South America today. No significant convection is observed with this wave at this time. A tropical wave axis in the W Caribbean extends from 20N83W to 05N83W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in a moist environment at the lower levels as indicated by SSMI TPW imagery. It is also under an upper-level diffluent environment. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N-20N between 80W-89W, and in the vicinity of the monsoon trough mainly south of 10N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 15N18W and extends southwestward to 07N36W. The ITCZ begins W of a tropical wave near 07N36W and continues to 09N44W, then resumes from 08N48W to 06N57W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered showers are observed within 180 nm S of the monsoon trough east of 20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An area of high pressure extends from the western Atlantic to the NE Gulf of Mexico waters. A surface trough is over the SE Gulf from 27N83W to 23N85W with scattered showers within 120 nm of the trough. Another surface trough is inland over the Yucatan peninsula. In the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered over the Straits of Florida near 24N81W. Another upper level low is centered over the NW Gulf near 28N94W. A thermal trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula from the early evenings to overnight hours for the next several days. A surge of fresh to occasionally strong winds will be associated with this trough. The SE Gulf trough is forecast to move westward over the tonight and Wed while dissipating. Otherwise, high pressure ridging will prevail across the area through the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. A Gale Warning is also in effect. Please check the Special Features section above for details. The monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean supports scattered moderate convection south of 13N and west of 80W. This pattern will continue through midweek. The next tropical wave is forecast to reach the waters E of the Lesser Antilles late Thu, and move across these islands on Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Sub-tropical storm Debby is over the central Atlantic. Refer to the section above for details. Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. See the section above for details. A 1020 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 31N68W. A small surface trough is also located over the W Atlantic from 29N66W to 26N66W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. The E Atlantic is under the influence of a broad area of high pressure supporting fair weather. In the upper levels, a large upper level trough is over the central Atlantic N of 26N between 40W-60W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa/ERA
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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Tuesday, August 7, 2018
SUB-TROPICAL STORM DEBBY AUG 7, 2018... 0448 PM EDT
318 WTNT34 KNHC 072031 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018 500 PM AST Tue Aug 07 2018 ...SUBTROPICAL STORM DEBBY MOVING NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE... ...EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.7N 49.2W ABOUT 1195 MI...1925 KM WNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 39.7 North, longitude 49.2 West. The storm is moving toward the north near 15 mph (24 km/h), but some decrease in forward speed is anticipated before the cyclone turns toward the northeast on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Debby is forecast to dissipate in a couple of days or earlier. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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DEBBY EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT LIVE STORM AS IT TRACKS
OVER COOLER WATERS...RTW
https://ralphstropicalweather.com/
SUB-TROPICAL STORM DEBBY AUG 7, 2018... 1159 AM EDT
360 WTNT34 KNHC 071454 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018 1100 AM AST Tue Aug 07 2018 ...SUBTROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORMS IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.9N 48.5W ABOUT 1160 MI...1870 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 38.9 North, longitude 48.5 West. The storm is moving toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours. A gradual turn to the northeast is anticipated thereafter. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Debby is forecast to dissipate in a couple of days. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 7, 2018... 1047 AM EDT
093 AXNT20 KNHC 071202 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 802 AM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean. A strong Atlantic ridge west of 60W is tightening the pressure gradient in the south-central Caribbean. Scatterometer data has confirmed the existence of gale-force winds in the Gulf of Venezuela, and 30 kt winds along the coast of Colombia near 13N71W. Gale-force winds are forecast for the Gulf of Venezuela on overnight and along the coast of Colombia by Wed night. Please see the Atlantic High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis in the eastern Atlantic extends from 19N37W to 08N41W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scatterometer data depicts a distinct shift in wind direction along the convergence zone axis west of the wave. The northern part of the wave is affected by Saharan dry air intrusion, limiting convection to the area south of 14N between 36W and 44W. A tropical wave in the equatorial central Atlantic extends from 02N-14N along 52W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave continues to be affected by intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust. Shallow moisture in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports scattered showers convection mainly S of 08N. A tropical wave axis in the central Caribbean extends south of 22N along 74W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is in a moist environment at the lower levels as indicated by LPW and water vapor imagery, and under a diffluent environment between an elongated upper-level low over the central basin and S-SW flow to the east, which is supporting scattered showers N of 18N between 70W-73W. A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean with axis S of 21N along 84W, moving W at 10-15 kt. LPW imagery shows shallow moisture in the vicinity of the wave, and interaction with the monsoon trough supports scattered moderate convection mainly S of 12N between 80W-85W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 20N17W and extends southwestward to 13N25W then westward to 18N39W. The ITCZ begins W of a tropical wave near 10N41W and continues to 06N51W, then resumes near 08N53W to 09N61W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is observed along the ITCZ between 40W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A broad area of high pressure extends from the western Atlantic into the northern Gulf. Scattered convection is observed just W of the Florida peninsula, a remnant of evening thunderstorms over land. Return flow associated with the surface ridge continues to advect shallow moisture from the Caribbean into the Gulf, supporting scattered moderate convection in the Yucatan Channel and south-central Gulf waters between 84W-90W. A surface trough is in the NE Gulf from the Florida Big Bend to 29N84W with associated convection over land at this time. Expect convection to fire up again across the basin later today. A nocturnal thermal trough that will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula each night, and enhance the NE winds off the W Yucatan Peninsula. Surface ridging will prevail elsewhere through Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... Enhanced satellite imagery continues to show a thin layer of Saharan dust moving across most of the basin where deep-layer wind shear prevails. This environment continues to suppress the development of significant convection across the basin. Shallow moisture is present south of Cuba, supporting scattered showers. The monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean supports convection near Panama. Fresh to near-gale force winds in the south-central Caribbean are forecast to increase to gale-force gusts in the Gulf of Venezuela and off the coast of Colombia by tonight, then sustained gale-force winds will develop through midweek. See the Special Features section for further details. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. See above for details. A subtropical low pressure system centered near 35N48W interacting with a broad upper-level low has organized showers and thunderstorms N of its center. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for it to acquire tropical characteristics, and chances for tropical cyclone development are low. A surface trough extends S and SE from it to 24N57W supporting scattered showers and tstms N of 30N between 40W-50W. Aside from the tropical waves, the remainder of the Atlc is under the influence of surface high pressure that supports fair weather. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Mundell/ERA
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
313 ABNT20 KNHC 071118 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Early visible satellite images indicate that the shower activity associated with a non-tropical low pressure system located a little more than 900 miles west-southwest of the Azores continues to show some signs of organization. Although the shower activity has decreased somewhat during the past few hours, this system could still acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics later today. By Wednesday, however, the low will encounter increasingly cooler waters, which will hinder development while the system moves toward the north-northeast over the open North Atlantic. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Avila
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INVEST 97L is gradually becoming better organized as it tracks
northeast and away from cooled sea surface temps related to this
97L. 97L has the potential to become a sub-tropical ora tropical
cyclone within in a day or so. Elsewhere the tropics remains
quiet... RTW
https://ralphstropicalweather.com/
Monday, August 6, 2018
TROPICAL OUTLOOK AUG 6, 2018... 0410 PM EDT
155 AXNT20 KNHC 061739 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 139 PM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale warning over the south-central Caribbean... A strong ridge over the E CONUS extending E to Atlc adjacent waters W of 60W will tighten the pressure gradient in the south-central Caribbean. Wind gusts reaching gale-force are expected starting tonight, then sustained gale-force winds are forecast for the Gulf of Venezuela on Tue night and along the coast of Colombia by Wed night. Please see the National Hurricane Center Atlantic High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with axis extending from 07N-18N along 35W, moving W at 10 kt. This wave continues to be affected by Saharan dry air and dust intrusion, which is limiting convection to the area where the wave meets the ITCZ from 09N-12N and west of 35W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending from 01N-14N along 48W, moving W at about 10-15 kt. The wave continues to be affected by intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust as indicated by GOES-16 RGBs, water vapor and CIRA LPW imagery at the lower levels. Shallow moisture in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports scattered moderate convection mainly S of 10N. A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis S of 21N along 70W, moving W at 5-10 kt. The wave is in a very moist environment at the lower levels as indicated by CIRA LPW and GOES-16 water vapor imagery. The wave is underneath a diffluent environment between an elongated upper-level low over the central basin and S-SW flow to the E, which is supporting scattered showers N of 17N between 68W-72W. A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis S of 21N along 80W, moving W at 10 kt. CIRA LPW imagery shows shallow moisture associated with the wave. Shallow moisture in the vicinity of the monsoon trough supports scattered moderate convection mainly S of 10N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 20N16W to 14N31W. The ITCZ begins W of a tropical wave near 10N38W and continues to 08N46W, then resumes near 07N51W to 09N61W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is observed along the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A broad area of high pressure extends from eastern CONUS across the basin. A surface trough extends across the northwest Gulf along 96W and north of 27N. Scattered moderate convection is observed with this trough mainly north of 25N and west of 94W. Another trough extends across the Bay of Campeche with scattered showers. Return flow provided by the surface ridge continues to advect shallow moisture from the Caribbean and into the Gulf, which is supporting scattered moderate convection across the Yucatan Channel and south-central Gulf waters between 84W-90W. A third surface trough is in the far east Gulf from the Florida Big Bend to 29N84W with no significant convection at this time. Expect for convection to continue across the west Gulf through tonight. Isolated showers are forecast in the Bay of Campeche through the middle of the week associated with a thermal surface trough that will come off the Yucatan Peninsula at night. This trough will also enhance the winds to fresh off the W Yucatan Peninsula. Surface ridging is forecast to prevail through the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... GOES-16 RGBs continue to show a thin layer of Saharan dust moving across most of the basin where strong deep-layer wind shear prevails. This environment continues to suppress the development of significant convection across the basin. However, shallow moisture is across the basin supporting scattered showers within 90 nm off the southwest of Cuba. To the south, the monsoon trough supports similar convection within 75 nm off Panama. A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean lacking convection, while an upper- level low over Hispaniola is supporting convection near the northern portion of the wave currently along 70W. See the Tropical Waves section above for further details. Fresh to near- gale force winds in the south-central Caribbean are forecast to increase to gale-force gusts in the Gulf of Venezuela and off the coast of Colombia by tonight, then sustained gale-force winds will develop through midweek. See the Special Features section for further details. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. A non-tropical, surface low pressure system centered near 31N50W is interacting with a broad upper- level low. Although the system is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms to the east and northeast of the center, environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive for the low to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics while it moves north or north-northeastward over the next day or so. The low is forecast to move over cooler waters by Tuesday night, and development is not expected after that time. Southeast of this low, a surface trough extends from it to 26N57W supporting scattered showers and tstms N of 30N between 40W-50W. Aside from the tropical waves, the remainder of the Atlc is under the influence of surface high pressure that supports fair weather. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
470 ABNT20 KNHC 061740 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A non-tropical low pressure system centered about 1100 miles west-southwest of the Azores is interacting with an upper-level low. Although the associated shower and thunderstorm activity has increased during the past 24 hours, environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive for additional development while the system moves north or north-northeastward over the next day or so. The low is forecast to move over cooler waters Tuesday night, and development is not expected after that time. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Brown
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No change in the tropics. Invest 97L has a chance for development
as it begins to track northeast away from present location. 97L
is only a threat to shipping... RTW
Please note that the latest guidance model for 18z has not yet been
released. So all I have is the 12z model run. I may not be able to
post this evening, so click on image to go to NHC and tropical tidbits
for latest info and models...RTW
TROPIC OUTLOOK AUG 6, 2018... 1011 AM EDT
743 AXNT20 KNHC 061149 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 749 AM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale warning in the south-central Caribbean... A strong ridge over the E CONUS extending E to Atlc adjacent waters W of 60W will tighten the pressure gradient in the south-central Caribbean early this week as a tropical wave moves W of Hispaniola. Gale force winds are forecast for the Gulf of Venezuela Tue night and along the coast of Colombia Wed night. Please see the National Hurricane Center Atlantic High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from 07N-18N along 34W, moving W at 10-15 kt. CIRA LPW imagery show abundant shallow moisture in the wave environment. However, the wave continues to be affected by Saharan dry air and dust intrusion, which is limiting convection to isolated showers from 10N-12N between 32W-37W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from 05N-16N along 46W, moving W at about 10 kt. The wave continues to be severely affected by intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust as indicated by GOES-16 RGBs, water vapor and CIRA LPW imagery at the lower levels. Shallow moisture in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports scattered moderate convection mainly S of 10N. A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis S of 21N along 70W, moving W at 5-10 kt. The wave is in a very moist environment at the lower levels as indicated by CIRA LPW and GOES-16 water vapor imagery. The wave is underneath a diffluent environment between an elongated upper-level low over the central basin and S-SW flow to the E, which is supporting scattered showers N of 16N between 65W-70W. A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis S of 21N along 79W, moving W at 10 kt. CIRA LPW imagery shows shallow moisture associated with the wave. Shallow moisture in the vicinity of the monsoon trough supports scattered moderate convection mainly S of 10N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 18N16W to 11N30W to 10N42W. The ITCZ begins W of a tropical wave near 07N48W and continues to 08N55W to 09N59W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is observed along the monsoon trough between 37W-42 and along the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The Bermuda high extends a ridge axis SW across the Florida Peninsula to the SW Gulf of Mexico, where a weakness in the ridge is analyzed as a surface trough from 28N95W to the Bay of Campeche near 18N92W. Scattered showers prevail along the trough. Return flow provided by the ridge continues to advect shallow moisture from the Caribbean and SW N Atlc waters into the Gulf, which is supporting scattered moderate convection across the Yucatan Channel and south-central Gulf waters between 85W-88W. Another surface trough is in the far east Gulf from the Florida Big Bend to 31N84W to 26N84W with scattered showers. Expect for convection to continue across the west Gulf through tonight. Isolated showers are forecast in the Bay of Campeche through the middle of the week associated with a thermal surface trough that will come off the Yucatan Peninsula at night. This trough will also enhance the winds to fresh off the W Yucatan Peninsula. Surface ridging is forecast to prevail through the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... GOES-16 RGBs continue to show a thin layer of Saharan dust moving across most of the basin where strong deep-layer wind shear prevails. This environment continues to suppress the development of significant convection in the region. However, shallow moisture is across the basin supporting scattered showers and tstms within 90 nm off the S coast of Cuba. The monsoon trough supports similar convection within 120 nm off southern Panama. A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean lacking convection while an upper-level low over the central basin supports scattered showers in the vicinity of a tropical wave just W of the Mona Passage. See the tropical waves section for further details. Fresh to near-gale force winds in the south-central Caribbean are forecast to increase to gale-force in the Gulf of Venezuela and off the coast of Colombia Wed and Thu, respectively. See the Special Features section for further details. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. A non-tropical, surface low pressure system centered near 31N50W is interacting with a broad upper- level low. Although thunderstorm activity has increased near and to the east of the low-level center, environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive for the low to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics while it moves little over the next day or so. By this afternoon, the low is expected to move toward the north or north-northeast and continue that motion through Tuesday. SE of this low, a surface trough extends from 31N45W to 25N53W to 26N64W supporting scattered showers and tstms N of 29N between 43W-50W. Aside from the tropical waves, the remainder of the Atlc is under the influence of surface high pressure that supports fair weather. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos/ERA
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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Other than INVEST 97L the tropics remain quiet... RTW
Saturday, August 4, 2018
TROPICAL OUTLOOK AUG 4, 2018...0413 PM EDT
859 AXNT20 KNHC 041802 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 202 PM EDT Sat Aug 4 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W/22W from 17N southward. Please refer to the MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section for the details about the precipitation. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W/29W from 17N southward. Please refer to the MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section for the details about the precipitation. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W/56W from 19N southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the waters from 10N to 17N between 50W and 60W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W/72W from 20N southward. The wave is moving through an area of pre-existing upper level cyclonic wind flow. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the waters from 17N southward between 55W and 72W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W/87W from 20N southward. The wave is moving through an area of pre-existing upper level cyclonic wind flow. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal and Mauritania near near 16N16W, to 10N28W and 09N33W. The ITCZ continues from 09N33W to 09N38W 11N49W, and 12N55W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 60 nm to 120 nm on either side of the line that runs from 13N20W to 09N27W to 09N32W to 07N35W. isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N southward between 35W and 60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough passes through the Texas coastal plains, into Mexico near 20N103W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas from the Texas coastal plains and coastal waters, into central Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the Gulf of Mexico from 90W westward. A surface trough is along 28N85W 25N85W 22N86W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the Gulf of Mexico from 90W eastward. The current 28N85W 22N86W surface trough will move westward across the southern and central waters through Sunday night, accompanied by scattered rainshowers with thunder. Surface troughs moving offshore the Yucatan Peninsula will produce fresh to locally strong wind speeds in the eastern waters of the Bay of Campeche from the evenings to late at night during the next few days. Surface high pressure will prevail. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, remaining for the upper level trough of the last few days. Middle level cyclonic wind flow is in the coastal areas and inland areas of Honduras and Nicaragua. scattered strong rainshowers cover the areas that are from 14N to 18N between 82W and 86W, in the coastal waters and the coastal plains of Honduras and Nicaragua. An upper level trough extends from an Atlantic Ocean 21N63W cyclonic circulation center, into the eastern Caribbean Sea, to the coast of Venezuela along 67W/68W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the waters from 17N southward between 55W and 72W. A tropical wave is along 55W/56W, moving into the area of the upper level cyclonic wind flow. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are between Cuba, Haiti, and Jamaica. The monsoon trough is along 09N74W to 09N79W, beyond 10N86W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, away from the Honduras-Nicaragua precipitation, from 12N southward from 75W westward. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected in the central Caribbean Sea and in the Gulf of Honduras through Wednesday night. The strongest wind speeds will pulse to 30 knots near 12N74W during the overnight hours, and the sea heights may reach 10 to 12 feet. It is possible that the wind speeds may approach minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia late on Wednesday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level cyclonic wind flow and comparatively drier air in subsidence cover the Atlantic Ocean from the Bahamas northward between 71W and 76W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 33N44W. Large- scale cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 20W and 60W. A stationary front is along 33N37W 31N40W, to a 1014 mb low pressure center that is near 32N45W. The stationary front continues to a 1015 mb low pressure center that is near 32N51W. A cold front continues from the 1015 mb low pressure center, to 28N56W, 28N60W, to 32N70W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean from 25N northward between 39W and 52W. isolated moderate rainshowers accompany the cold front from 26N northward between 50W and 70W. The wind speeds will pulse to strong speeds near the northern coast of Hispaniola each night through Wednesday night. The trade trade winds, elsewhere across the region, will diminish gradually through early next week. An Atlantic Ocean ridge will weaken, with a backdoor cold front moving southward. The front will weaken into a trough by Sunday evening. It is possible that weak low pressure may develop along the trough through early next week. A surface ridge will re-develop by the middle of the next week as the trough dissipates. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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INVEST 97L
020 ABNT20 KNHC 041747 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Aug 4 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Shower activity associated with a non-tropical low pressure system centered about 850 miles west-southwest of the Azores remains limited. However, the low could gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics while it moves southwestward over the next day or two, and then lifts back to the northeast and remains over warm water through Tuesday. Additional information on this low pressure area can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Berg
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 4, 2018... 1045 AM EDT
635 AXNT20 KNHC 041204 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 804 AM EDT Sat Aug 4 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1130 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 20W from 17N southward. isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the area that is from 10N to 14N between 20W and 24W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W/27W from 17N southward. isolated moderate rainshowers are in the area that is from 08N to 14N between 25W and 30W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W/54W from 19N southward. widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 10N to 1N between 55W and 60W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W/69W from 20N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. isolated moderate rainshowers are in the area that is from 10N to 17N between 60W and 71W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W/85W from 202N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. The wave is moving into the area of a pre-existing upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough. A tropical wave is along 94W/95W from 20N southward, from the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico into the eastern Pacific Ocean. rainshowers are possible within 60 nm to 120 nm on either side of the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal and Gambia near near 13N17W, to 12N21W, 12N25W, and 11N32W. The ITCZ continues from 11N32W to 08N43W, 07N48W, and 07N56W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 08N to 13N between Africa and 31W. isolated moderate rainshowers are from 03N to 16N between 31W and 60W. Please refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section for more information about precipitation. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level cyclonic wind flow from a trough spans the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, the Texas coastal waters, and interior sections of Mexico from 20N northward from the Texas Big Bend eastward. The upper level trough was being associated with a stationary front during the last few days. The southwesternmost point of the stationary front now is in west central Louisiana. One surface trough is in the northeast and north central Gulf of Mexico, from the Florida Panhandle to SE Louisiana, and to 26N93W. A second surface trough is along 28N95W 25N96W 20N97W. widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the Gulf of Mexico to the west of the line from 30N86W 24N90W 19N92W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 87W eastward. The cyclonic wind flow is related to the upper level trough that extends from the NW Bahamas to coastal Nicaragua. widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the Straits of Florida, parts of Cuba, and the Caribbean Sea to the south of Cuba from 18N to 25N between 74W and 85W, and in the Gulf of Mexico from 24N northward between 83W and 87W. The northern part of a tropical wave will cross the southern Gulf this weekend. Surface troughs moving W from the Yucatan Peninsula will produce fresh to locally strong winds over the eastern waters of the Bay of Campeche from sunset to around midnight. Otherwise, high pressure ridging will prevail in the wake of the tropical wave. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extends from the NW Bahamas, across the western half of Cuba, into the coastal sections of Nicaragua. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are in the coastal areas of Nicaragua from 11N to 14N between 82W and 85W. widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the Straits of Florida, parts of Cuba, and the Caribbean Sea to the south of Cuba from 18N to 25N between 74W and 85W, and in the Gulf of Mexico from 24N northward between 83W and 87W. isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N to 15N between 78W and 81W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 14N to 16N between 68W and 74W, in an area of scattered to broken low level clouds. An upper level trough extends from an Atlantic Ocean 21N56W cyclonic circulation center, to 15N59W, toward Venezuela and Trinidad. A tropical wave is moving through the same area. The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W in Colombia and beyond 83W/84W in southern Costa Rica. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, away from the Nicaragua precipitation, from 11N southward from 76W westward. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected in the central Caribbean Sea and in the Gulf of Honduras through Wednesday night. The strongest wind speeds will pulse to 30 knots near 12N74W during the overnight hours, and the sea heights may reach 10 to 12 feet. It is possible that the wind speeds may approach minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia late on Wednesday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level cyclonic wind flow and comparatively drier air in subsidence cover the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 66W and 73W. Large-scale cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 20W and 60W. The comparatively greatest amount of cyclonic wind flow is associated with a cyclonic circulation center that is near 37N40W. A cold front passes through 32N36W to 30N40W and 32N45W. A stationary front continues northwestward to a 1016 mb low pressure center that is near 35N50W. A cold front continues from the low pressure center, through 32N55W, to 31N60W, to Bermuda, and to 34N67W. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 30N to 32N between 45W and 47W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 24N northward between 40W and 52W, and from 30N northward between 50W and 70W. . The wind speeds will pulse to strong speeds near the northern coast of Hispaniola each night through Wednesday night. The trade trade winds, elsewhere across the region, will diminish gradually through early next week. An Atlantic Ocean ridge will weaken, with a backdoor cold front moving southward. The front will weaken into a trough by Sunday evening. It is possible that weak low pressure may develop along the trough through early next week. A surface ridge will re-develop by the middle of the next week as the trough dissipates. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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The Central Atlantic between Africa and the lesser
Antilles remains suppressed by Sahara dust and dry
air...RTW
https://ralphstropicalweather.com/
National Hurricane Center
858
ABNT20 KNHC 041153
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 4 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A non-tropical low pressure system located about 800 miles
west-southwest of the Azores is producing gale-force wind gusts
northeast of its center. Although associated shower activity is
currently limited, the low could gradually acquire subtropical or
tropical characteristics over the next few days while it moves
southwestward at about 10 mph over warmer water. Additional
information on this low pressure area can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.
$$
Forecaster Berg
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A non-tropical low that has been producing gale
force winds the past few days over the north Atlantic
is being monitored for tropical cyclone formation.
This system is not a threat to land and has a low
chance for development 10% within
48 hours and a low chance for development 20%
within 5-days... RTW
Latest Guidance 12z
Friday, August 3, 2018
TROPICAL OUTLOOK AUG 3, 2018... 0310 PM EDT
168 AXNT20 KNHC 031756 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 156 PM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W/22W from 21N southward. widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 08N to 13N between Africa and 31W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W/45W from 18N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. isolated moderate rainshowers are from 05N to 14N between 36W and 50W. some of the precipitation is possibly more related to the ITCZ. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W/59W from 19N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. isolated moderate rainshowers are from 06N to 16N between 50W and 60W. some of the precipitation is possibly more related to the ITCZ. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W/80W from 22N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. The wave is moving into the area of a pre-existing area of upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough. A tropical wave is along 94W/95W from 20N southward, from the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico into the eastern Pacific Ocean. rainshowers are possible within 60 nm to 120 nm on either side of the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal and Gambia near near 13N17W, to 12N21W, 12N25W, and 11N32W. The ITCZ continues from 11N32W to 08N43W, 07N48W, and 07N56W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 08N to 13N between Africa and 31W. isolated moderate rainshowers are from 03N to 16N between 31W and 60W. Please refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section for more information about precipitation. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level cyclonic wind flow from a trough spans the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, the Texas coastal waters, and interior sections of Mexico from 20N northward from the Texas Big Bend eastward. The upper level trough was being associated with a stationary front during the last few days. The southwesternmost point of the stationary front now is in west central Louisiana. One surface trough is in the northeast and north central Gulf of Mexico, from the Florida Panhandle to SE Louisiana, and to 26N93W. A second surface trough is along 28N95W 25N96W 20N97W. widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the Gulf of Mexico to the west of the line from 30N86W 24N90W 19N92W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 87W eastward. The cyclonic wind flow is related to the upper level trough that extends from the NW Bahamas to coastal Nicaragua. widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the Straits of Florida, parts of Cuba, and the Caribbean Sea to the south of Cuba from 18N to 25N between 74W and 85W, and in the Gulf of Mexico from 24N northward between 83W and 87W. The current Florida Panhandle-to-26N93W surface trough will shift W and inland through tonight. The northern extent of the current 78W/80W tropical wave will move through the Straits of Florida tonight, and across the southern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Surface troughs moving W from the Yucatan Peninsula will produce fresh to locally strong winds in the eastern waters of the Bay of Campeche from sunset to midnight. High pressure will prevail in the wake of the tropical wave. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extends from the NW Bahamas, across the western half of Cuba, into the coastal sections of Nicaragua. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are in the coastal areas of Nicaragua from 11N to 14N between 82W and 85W. widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the Straits of Florida, parts of Cuba, and the Caribbean Sea to the south of Cuba from 18N to 25N between 74W and 85W, and in the Gulf of Mexico from 24N northward between 83W and 87W. isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N to 15N between 78W and 81W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 14N to 16N between 68W and 74W, in an area of scattered to broken low level clouds. An upper level trough extends from an Atlantic Ocean 21N56W cyclonic circulation center, to 15N59W, toward Venezuela and Trinidad. A tropical wave is moving through the same area. The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W in Colombia and beyond 83W/84W in southern Costa Rica. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, away from the Nicaragua precipitation, from 11N southward from 76W westward. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected in the central Caribbean Sea and in the Gulf of Honduras through Tuesday night. The strongest wind speeds will pulse to 30 knots near 12N74W during the overnight hours, where the sea heights occasionally will build to 10 to 12 feet. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level cyclonic wind flow and comparatively drier air in subsidence cover the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 66W and 73W. Large-scale cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 20W and 60W. The comparatively greatest amount of cyclonic wind flow is associated with a cyclonic circulation center that is near 37N40W. A cold front passes through 32N36W to 30N40W and 32N45W. A stationary front continues northwestward to a 1016 mb low pressure center that is near 35N50W. A cold front continues from the low pressure center, through 32N55W, to 31N60W, to Bermuda, and to 34N67W. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 30N to 32N between 45W and 47W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 24N northward between 40W and 52W, and from 30N northward between 50W and 70W. . The wind speeds will pulse to strong speeds near the northern coast of Hispaniola each night through Tuesday night. The trade trade winds, elsewhere across the region, will diminish gradually through early next week. An Atlantic Ocean ridge will weaken, with a backdoor cold front moving southward. The front will dissipate into a trough through the end of the weekend. It is possible that weak low pressure may develop along the trough through early next week. A surface ridge will re-develop by the middle of the week as the trough dissipates. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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The tropics remain quiet no change and will remain
this way during the next few days...RTW
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