RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS MORNING UPDATE JULY 25, 2021

 

STORM INVEST 90L HAS A WELL DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND THIS MORNING I AM SEEING MOISTURE RAPPING AROUND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.  I WILL MONITOR THIS BURST OF STORMS TO SEE IF IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP.  

THERE IS STILL DRY AIR SURROUNDING THIS SYSTEM BUT THE MOISTURE RETURNING IS AN INDICATION THAT WIND SHEAR HAS LESSEN OVER NIGHT.  

PRESSURES REMAIN STEADY AT 1013MB NO CHANGE THERE.  WIND GUST OBSERVATION NEAR THIS SYSTEM 18MPH WAS THE HIGHEST GUST.

THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS A CHANCE TO BECOME A DEPRESSION IF THE STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND RAP AROUND THE CENTER.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL OUTLOOK

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A well-defined low pressure area located about 160 miles east of 
Daytona Beach, Florida, continues to produce disorganized shower and 
thunderstorm activity mainly to the east and southeast of the 
center.  Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally 
conducive for development, and a tropical depression could still 
form later today or early Monday while the system drifts westward 
toward the east coast of Florida.  An Air Force Reserve 
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this 
afternoon, if necessary.  Interests in Florida should continue to 
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS EVENING UPDATE JULY 24, 2021

 

INVEST 90L LOOKS EVEN LESS ORGANIZED THIS EVENING AND THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO DRY AIR THAT A WEAK FRONT USHERED IN.  THIS HAS DRIED UP ALL THE THUNDERSTORM OFF SHORE AND NEAR THE CENTER.  TWO MODELS SUGGEST WEAK LOW PASSING OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA BUT NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL OUTLOOK

000
ABNT20 KNHC 242325
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Earlier this afternoon and evening, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane 
Hunter aircraft investigated the low pressure system off the east 
coast of Florida and found a well-defined center of circulation 
about 185 miles east of Cape Canaveral.  However, the system still 
lacks organized shower and thunderstorm activity near its center 
and therefore has not met the criteria to be designated as a 
tropical depression.  Environmental conditions are expected to 
remain marginally conducive for additional development, and a 
tropical depression could still form overnight or on Sunday while 
the low moves generally westward at 5 to 10 mph toward the east 
coast of Florida.  Interests in Florida should continue to monitor 
the progress of this system.  Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 
scheduled to investigate the system Sunday morning, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Blake

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS AFTERNOON UPDATE JULY 24, 2021

 

STORM INVEST 90L STILL REMAINS DISORGANIZED WITH DRY AIR ALONG THE WEST QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION.  THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.  THERE HAS BEEN WIND SHEAR IN THE AREA BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT AND DRY THAT HAS MOVED IN BEHIND THIS WEAK FRONT.

SO AT THIS TIME NHC IS CALLING FOR MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME.  THERE IS A CHANCE 90L TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM AS IT MEANDERS OFF SHORE AND BEGINS A WESTWARD DRIFT TOWARD FLORIDA.  FLORIDIANS NEED TO CONTINUE MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL OUTLOOK

000
ABNT20 KNHC 241743
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorm activity remain disorganized in association 
with the low pressure system located about 200 miles east of Daytona 
Beach, Florida. Environmental conditions appear only marginally 
conducive for additional development, but a tropical depression 
could still form over the next day or so while the low drifts 
westward towards the Florida Peninsula. Interests in Florida should 
continue to monitor the progress of this system.  An Air Force 
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to investigate the 
system further.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven

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Ralph's Tropical Weather

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS MORNING UPDATE JULY 24, 2021

 

PRESSURES HAVE DROPPED SOME MORE OVER NIGHT, HOWEVER THE LOW REMAINS VOID OF THUNDERSTORMS SINCE THE STORMS ARE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  WIND GUST AND WINDS IN THIS AREA HAVE NOT REACH DEPRESSION STRENGTH AT THIS TIME BUT ACCORDING TO NHC CONDITION COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL OUTLOOK

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorm activity has increased a bit this morning 
in association with the low pressure system located about 200 miles 
east of Daytona Beach, Florida. Nearby buoy observations also 
indicate that surface pressures have been falling close to the 
center of this system. However, the associated shower and 
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized and located primarily 
south and east of the center. Environmental conditions are 
forecasted to become a bit more favorable for development, and a 
tropical depression could form over the next day or so while the low 
meanders offshore of the Florida Peninsula. Interests in Florida 
should continue to monitor the progress of this system.  An Air 
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 
the system later today, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Papin/Beven