...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM SOON... ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM...
5:00 PM EDT Thu Aug 26
Location: 18.0°N 79.8°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
I AM FOCUSING MY ATTENTION ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WHICH IS MORE A THREAT TO LAND THAN 97L AND 98L AT THIS TIME.
NINE IS IN WARM WATERS HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME SHEAR IN THE AREA DUE TO A BROAD UPPER LOW PASSING OVER FLORIDA. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST OVER THE GULF MEXICO AND DISSIPATE GIVING WAY FOR NINE TO TRACK NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS HOW WE SEE IT ON MODELS NOW, AND WE KNOW THAT FORECAST WILL CHANGE FROM MODEL RUN TO THE NEXT RUN IN THE COMING DAYS. SO FAR THEY ARE CLUSTERED CLOSE TOGETHER AND IN SOME WHAT AGREEMENT.
INTENSITY MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A CAT 1-4 AT LANDFALL IN THE GULF COAST BUT ONCE AGAIN WE CAN NOT FOCUS ON THESE FORECAST SINCE THEY ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
GFS, EURO, CMC MODELS SUGGEST A CAT 2 AT LANDFALL WHILE THE HWRF MODEL TENDS TO OVER DO THE FORECAST AND SUGGEST A CAT 4 AT LANDFALL. HOWEVER, I DO HAVE TO ADD, THAT WITH OCEAN TEMPS AS THEY ARE NOW, IT IS PLENTY WARM FOR A MAJOR HURRICANE TO STRENGTHEN, DEPENDING ON ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS BEING FAVORABLE.
RTW
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA...
11:00 AM EDT Thu Aug 26
Location: 16.9°N 79.2°W
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
AS I MENTIONED ON FACEBOOK POST YOU CANNOT TRUST LONG RANGE FORECAST AND INTENSITY MODELS OUT BEYOND 4-5 DAYS. JUST KEEP MONITORING FORECAST FROM NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK FOR UPDATES ON 99L
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
000 ABNT20 KNHC 251758 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so from a tropical wave currently located north of Colombia. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form late this week or over the weekend. The system is expected to move northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and near or across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Friday and into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend where conditions are expected to be favorable for additional development. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and flooding will be possible through the weekend in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula. In addition, this system could bring dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall to portions of the coasts of Louisiana, Texas, and the Mexican state of Tamaulipas late this weekend and early next week. However, uncertainty remains large since the system has yet to form. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Thursday afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic about 700 miles southeast of Bermuda. Only slow development of this system is expected during the next day or so due to unfavorable upper-level winds. Afterwards, environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system turns eastward over the open central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development by early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
WE HAVE THREE INVEST IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN, 97L AND 98L AND 99L IN THE CARIBBEAN THAT NEEDS TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IF YOU LIVE IN A NORTHERN GULF COAST STATE.
SO LETS TALK ABOUT THE MORE IMPORTANT ONE OF THE THREE 99L.
THIS SYSTEM HAS MEDIUM 40% CHANCE THROUGH 48 HRS AND HIGH 80% THROUGH 5-DAYS. AT THIS TIME 99L IS ENCOUNTERING SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR FROM A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FLORIDA. SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE FAVORABLE IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN TO VERY FAVORABLE IN THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS CONCERNS ME BECAUSE MODELS ARE FORECASTING A MAJOR STORM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPS LIKE WE ARE SEEING THAT IS MOST DEFINITELY FUEL FOR MAJOR STORM TO DEVELOP ON. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.
RTW
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
000 ABNT20 KNHC 251138 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so from a tropical wave currently located over northwestern Colombia and the south-central Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The disturbance is expected to move near or across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday, and move into the western Gulf of Mexico by Sunday where conditions could be favorable for additional development to occur. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic about 800 miles southeast of Bermuda. Only slow development of this system is expected during the next day or so due to unfavorable upper-level winds. Afterwards, environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system turns eastward over the central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development by this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
GFS CALLS FOR MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE GULF
EURO ALSO SUGGESTING A MAJOR STORM IN GULF
CMC MODEL ALSO SUGGESTING A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE GULF
000 ABNT20 KNHC 241742 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Aug 24 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days from a tropical wave currently located over the central Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development of the low if it remains over water, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while the system moves northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic almost 1000 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Little development of this system is expected during the next day or two due while it moves northwestward at about 15 mph over marginally conducive ocean temperatures and is affected by strong upper-level winds. Afterwards, environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week while the system turns eastward over the central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Another tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development by the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg
