Ralph's Tropical Weather-RTW

Tuesday, September 7, 2021

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE SEPT 7, 2021

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

755 
ABNT20 KNHC 072339
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Larry, located over the central Atlantic several hundred miles 
southeast of Bermuda.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased somewhat this evening over 
the south-central Gulf of Mexico in association with a surface 
trough and an upper-level disturbance.  The system is expected to 
move slowly northeastward over the central and northeastern Gulf of 
Mexico during the next couple of days.  Upper-level winds are 
currently only marginally conducive for development, but they are 
forecast to become slightly more favorable by late Wednesday, and a 
tropical or subtropical depression could form as the system nears 
the northern Gulf coast Wednesday night or Thursday.  The 
disturbance is then expected to cross the southeastern United 
States, and some slight additional development will be possible 
after it emerges off the southeastern United States coast late this 
week.  Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall will be 
possible across portions of the Florida panhandle and southern 
Georgia on Wednesday and Thursday, with localized flooding possible.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Monday, September 6, 2021

...MAJOR HURRICANE WILL PRODUCE LARGE WAVES ALONG THE LESSER ANTILLES, GREATER ANILLES, BAHAMAS, EASTERN SEA BOARD, BERMUDA AND COASTAL CANADA THIS WEEK...BERMUDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR LARRY...

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

...NOAA AIRCRAFT FINDS LARRY SLIGHTLY STRONGER... ...EXPECTED TO CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES LATER THIS WEEK...

5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 6
Location: 22.5°N 53.9°W
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 956 mb
Max sustained: 125 mph

SATELLITE OF LARRY AS THE SUN LIGHT FADED OVER THE ATLANTIC

MAJESTIC IMAGERY, BEAUTIFUL TO WATCH.

MAKE SURE TO PRESS PLAY THEN (F) FOR FULL SCREEN.

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE INVEST 91L...SEPT 6, 2021 06:25 PM EDT

INVEST 91L STILL IN A HOSTILE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE IN THE CENTRAL GULF IF AT ALL. SHEAR IS LOW AND WATER TEMPS ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR DEVELOPMENT.

INTENSITY MODELS CALL FOR A DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH IT AND IT COULD CAUSE FLOODING AS IT TRACKS OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

MODELS ARE USELESS SINCE WE HAVE NO ACTUAL LOW CENTER FIX. SO GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE. A GENERAL TRACK TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IN THE COMING DAYS.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

PRECIPITABLE WATER MODEL

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE...SEPT 6, 2021

NHC

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 5 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Larry, located over the central tropical Atlantic about 900 miles 
east of the northern Leeward Islands. 

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan Peninsula 
and surrounding waters are associated with a surface trough and an 
upper-level disturbance located over the eastern Bay of Campeche.  
Locally heavy rains are likely to continue through tonight over 
that area.  The system is forecast to move slowly northward or 
northeastward over the central and then northeastern Gulf of Mexico 
over the next few days. Although upper-level winds are currently 
unfavorable for development to occur, they are expected to become 
marginally conducive for tropical cyclone formation by late Tuesday. 
The disturbance is then expected to cross the southeastern United 
States beginning midweek, and some development will be possible 
once it emerges over the Atlantic waters by late this week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

Sunday, September 5, 2021

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE SEPT 5, 2021...INVEST 91L

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

007 
ABNT20 KNHC 051746
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 5 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Larry, located over the central tropical Atlantic about 900 miles 
east of the northern Leeward Islands. 

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan Peninsula 
and surrounding waters are associated with a surface trough and an 
upper-level disturbance.  Locally heavy rains are likely to continue 
today over that area.  The system is forecast to move slowly 
northward or northeastward over the central and then northeastern 
Gulf of Mexico over the next few days, when upper-level winds are 
only expected to be marginally conducive for tropical cyclone 
formation.  The disturbance is then expected to cross the  
southeastern United States beginning midweek, and some development 
is possible once it emerges over the Atlantic waters by late this 
week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE SEPT 5, 2021...0256 AM EDT

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

000
ABNT20 KNHC 050508
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 5 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Larry, located over the central tropical Atlantic about 900 miles 
east of the Leeward Islands. 

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of Central 
America and the Yucatan Peninsula are associated with a surface 
trough and an upper-level disturbance.  Locally heavy rains are 
likely to continue today over that area.  The system is forecast to 
move northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico later today, 
then move slowly northward or northeastward over the western or 
central Gulf of Mexico.  Upper-level winds are only expected to be 
marginally conducive for tropical cyclone formation, but some slow 
development is possible while the system moves across the Gulf of 
Mexico through the middle of the week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi