..TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 19, 2023..

 

NEW INVESTMENT NO NUMBER YET:  

• This one is off the African coast and has a low 0–20% formation chance through 48 hours and 7 days. THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING HEALTHY AT THIS TIME, BUT IT HAS A SMALL AREA OF FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO THRIVE ON. To its south, there is wind shear, and to its north, the same. As this system tracks northward, it will move into an unfavorable environment. IF IT REMAINS WEAK, IT WILL CONTINUE WEST AS A TROPICAL WAVE WITH A SLOW CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT, IF AT ALL. However, I will continue to monitor its progress.

INVEST 98L: 

 

• has a high 70–70% formation chance through 48 hours and 7 days. THIS STORM SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO HOSTILE UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND DEVELOPMENT, IF ANY, WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR UNLESS CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

INVEST 99L: 

• has a medium 50–50% chance for formation through 48 hours and 7 days. This storm system has also moved into an upper-level wind environment, and if it manages to develop, it should be a short-lived storm system.

INVEST 90L: 

• This system has a medium 40–60% formation chance through 48 hours and 7 days. AT THIS TIME CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT FAVORABLE BUT THEY COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A DEPRESSION COULD FORM ACCORDING TO NHC.   LESSER ANTILLES IS EXPERINCING SQUALLY CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.  INTEREST IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HAITI, DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

INVEST IN THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST OF FLORIDA:

• is forecast to track into the eastern Gulf tonight. AS IT TRACKS SOUTH OF FLORIDA THIS EVENING, IT WILL DRAG SHOWERS STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAINS IN THOSE STRONGER CELLS. ALTHOUGH LIVE HIGH RESOLUTION RADAR IS SHOWING LESS PRECIPITION OVER THE BAHAMAS, WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS MOISTURE IN THE UPPER, MIDDLE, AND LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SO THE MOISTURE IS THERE, BUT THE INTENSITY OF STORMS SEEMS TO BE LESS THAN THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE SUN WAS HEATING THE ENVIRONMENT. SO SOME MAY SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS, OTHER MAY NOT, AS I SEE ON RADAR AT THIS TIME. I WILL MONITOR FROM MY PHONE THIS EVENING AND WILL POST ON MY TWITTER (X) OR FACEBOOK PAGE.

RTW

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE

MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE

UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE

EURO ENSEMBLE SHOWS A WIDE SPREAD FORECAST FOR 90L THAT IS WHY FORECAST IS SO HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. Also, we will have to monitor the southern Gulf for lows to come up out of the East Pacific.

GEFS ENSEMBLE ALSO HAS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST. 

This season is not going to be an easy one.

WRN Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador

..TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 18, 2023..

 

Invest 98L is moving through favorable upper-level winds, but to its north there is Sahara dust and dry air. Development should occur slowly, if at all.

98L will split into two parts, which will track west-northwest while 98L tracks northwest into the dry air and weaken. The other area that will track into the east Caribbean is forecast to develop, possibly as it nears the Dominican Republic by early next week.

Invest 99L has a broad circulation and seems to have a better chance for development. However, 99L is sandwiched in between unfavorable wind shear. Also, Saharan dry air encompasses most of the North Atlantic. If 99L manages to become a tropical cyclone, it is more than likely that it will be a short-lived storm system.

Storm Invest, north of Haiti and the Dominican Republic, is associated with a westward-tracking wave near eastern Cuba and an upper-level low near Jamaica. The upper low is producing enough upper-level lift to enhance storms over the northern axis of the wave. As this wave and upper low track west-northwest, they will enhance showers and storms over the Bahamas this weekend and Florida before tracking into the Gulf of Mexico. Then, early next week, a low will develop in the Gulf and track westward toward the southern Texas-Mexico border, bringing storms to this region. There is a chance that this system will become a tropical depression or storm before it makes landfall along the Texas-Mexico border or points north of that area. This could become a potential flood zone for this area if this system brings rain to this area.

RTW

WRN Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador

..TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 17, 2023..

 

NHC is still monitoring two waves with a 40–60% chance of formation within 48 hours and 7 days. Development has been slow because these waves are sandwiched between westerly upper-level shear and Sahara dust and dry air (SAL). Both of these systems are forecast to track northwest over the North Atlantic in due time.  

RTW

 ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with 
an elongated trough of low pressure centered over 900 miles 
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a 
tropical depression could form during the next several days while 
it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central 
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
A broad area of low pressure, partially associated with a tropical 
wave, is producing a large area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms near and to the southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  
Further development of this low is possible while it moves toward 
the west-northwest or northwest at around 10 mph across the 
eastern tropical Atlantic, and a tropical depression could form over 
the weekend before environmental conditions become unfavorable for 
development early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

3. Western Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form in the central or western 
Gulf of Mexico by the beginning of next week. Some slow development 
of this system is possible thereafter as it moves westward and 
approaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by the middle of 
next week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Bucci

I am monitoring a tropical wave between the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico that is producing strong to moderate storms north of the Dominican Republic. This wave seems to be interacting with a weak, elongated trough of low pressure in the upper levels between Cuba and Haiti. This is helping to enhance storms west of the northern wave axis.

 

Model Ensemble and some of the other models show this system tracking west-northwest under Florida and possibly bringing heavy rainfall for Florida as it tracks west, then possibly developing next week in the Gulf of Mexico. It could become a depression or tropical storm as it heads toward Texas.

RTW

The GEFS Ensemble does not seem to pick up on the low in the Gulf.

Water Vapor Satellite shows the dry air in the upper levels over the Atlantic that is hindering development of these storm systems at this time.

This graphics map which I borrowed from UW-CIMSS/NESDIS shows areas with favorable and unfavorable wind shear.  I wrote it in white lettering so you can visualize it better.

WRN Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador