We are still monitoring the Northwest Caribbean for tropical cyclone formation in the coming days. So far, I am seeing an upper-level high over the Northwest Caribbean, which makes it a favorable wind shear-free zone for a tropical cyclone to form in.
An upper low in the Bay of Campeche (B.O.C.) is still producing upper-level shear over a portion of Mexico northward through the B.O.C., the Yucatan, the Gulf of Mexico, Florida, and Cuba.
This upper low is forecast to track west away from the B.O.C., and a gradual decrease in wind shear will occur over the area, allowing the high pressure to settle in and enhance the chance for formation.
This is how I see it for now, but the forecast will change by the next time I do another update.
As for the track, that is still uncertain since we don't have an actual system to pin down.
Ensemble models are a bit spread out, so for now, anywhere from the Florida Big Bend to the Naples area could be a landfall point.
Regardless of its development, this system will enhance rain and storm chances for the Florida Peninsula early next week possibly through Friday. Interest in the Yucatan, Western Cuba and Florida should closely monitor the progress of this system.
Labor Day is looking tropical cyclone-free as of now.
Monitor the National Hurricane Center for the latest on this developing system.
RTW
000 ABNT20 KNHC 251137 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 25 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Franklin, located a couple of hundred miles east-northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and eastern Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while moving generally northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba, and Florida should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Emily): A trough of low pressure located roughly 1000 miles east-northeast of Bermuda (the remnants of former Tropical Storm Emily) is producing an elongated area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are becoming less favorable for tropical cyclone formation, and the low is expected to merge with a frontal boundary over the north central Atlantic in the next day or so. For additional information on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of low pressure located about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions could become more conducive for development this weekend, and a tropical depression could form by early next week while the system moves generally northwestward toward the central subtropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Kelly/Blake
