..TROPICAL STORM LEE CAN BECOME A HURRICANE AT ANYTIME TODAY SEPTEMBER 6, 2023..

 

I am still monitoring possible troughs and weaknesses in the high pressure ridge that could steer Lee away from the Caribbean, Bahamas, and eastern U.S. So far, forecast models show these troughs turning Lee; however, things could change in the coming week, so I will continue to monitor closely. We don't want any surprises like we did with Irma.

So if you live in the northern Leeward Islands or Puerto Rico, just remain vigilant for now!

Remember to always check for the latest National Hurricane Center updates! 

RTW

EURO model comes real close to the Carolina outer banks as the trough moves away and High rebuilds a bit west.  Will have to monitor future model run.

Canadian has a strong trough over the eastern U.S. which seems a bit to strong for September.

GFS has been showing the same for the past few days a trough merging with Lee and tracking it over Nova Scotia as a strong tropical or sub-tropical storm.

...LEE CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...LIKELY TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE BY SATURDAY...

11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 6 Location: 14.1°N 45.5°W Moving: WNW at 14 mph Min pressure: 994 mb Max sustained: 70 mph

..TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK SEPT. 5, 2023..

 

Good morning, and happy Tuesday!

I will continue to monitor models and possible troughs coming out of Canada in the coming week. So far, most of the models show troughs helping to move future Hurricane Lee northwest and north. 

However, if T.D. 13 or Lee tracks at a lower latitude, the Northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico could be affected, but we're not sure if that will happen, so watch closely. Read the NHC key message below. Bermuda should closely monitor, as should Nova Scotia and Newfoundland as well. 

As for the other system near the African coast, that system should remain out over the north-central Atlantic waters.

As we well know this is not a forecast just an observation on my part.  Always refer to the National Hurricane Centers website for updates.

STORM INVESTIGATION 95L IS NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13

RTW

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A POWERFUL HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...

11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 5 Location: 12.5°N 40.2°W Moving: WNW at 15 mph Min pressure: 1008 mb Max sustained: 35 mph

The EURO model shows a trough out of Canada in the blue, turning powerful Major Hurricane Lee into a weakness in the high ridge left behind by a remnant low from Idalia.

The GFS model shows a trough out of Canada in the blue, turning powerful Major Hurricane Lee into a weakness in the high ridge left behind by a remnant low from Idalia as well.

The (GEM) Canadian model shows a trough out of Canada in the blue, turning powerful Major Hurricane Lee into a weakness in the high pressure ridge, left behind by a remnant low from Idalia as well.

..TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK SEPT 4, 2023..

 

Storm Investigation 95L is looking healthy and will more than likely become a major storm as it tracks further to the west-northwest.

Most of the models agree that a weakness in the high pressure ridge east of Bermuda will be present. This will leave an opening for 95L to turn northwest and northward in due time. However, models that have tracked over or northeast of the Leeward Islands historically (Hebert Box) have affected the greater Antilles and the east coast of the U.S. It's still too early in the forecast to say this will occur, so we must remain vigilant.

The ICON model seems to be the outlier model, suggesting a track west-northwest closer to the northern coast of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.

We watch, wait, and are storm-ready!

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 041756
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 4 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Katia, located over the eastern subtropical 
Atlantic, and has issued the last advisory on the remnants of Gert, 
located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
Satellite imagery indicates that an area of low pressure has formed 
from the tropical wave centered about 700 miles west-southwest of 
the Cabo Verde Islands. The low-level circulation has become better 
defined since yesterday, with increasing organization in the shower 
and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are forecast to 
be conducive for further development, and this system is expected to 
become a tropical depression or a tropical storm in a day or two. 
Additional strengthening is likely late this week while the system 
moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the 
central and western portions of the tropical Atlantic. For 
additional information on this system, including gale warnings, see 
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A strong tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to move off 
the African coast in a couple of days. Environmental conditions 
should support some slow development, and a tropical depression 
could form over the far eastern tropical Atlantic around the latter 
part of the week or the weekend while the wave moves to the 
west-northwest at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Northeastern Atlantic (ex-Franklin):
Post-Tropical Cyclone Franklin is located several hundred miles 
north of the Azores and is forecast to move quickly southeastward 
towards warmer waters east of Azores. This system could acquire some 
subtropical or tropical characteristics late this week or this 
weekend while it moves erratically between the Azores and Portugal. 
For additional information on this system, including gale warnings, 
see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Additional information on Post-Tropical Cyclone Franklin 
can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under 
WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and online at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2

$$
Forecaster Blake

..TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK SEPT 2, 2023..

 

As it is, there are plenty of fish storms in the Atlantic, but nothing significant to worry about. It's too early to tell where Invest 95L is heading and if it is going to develop. 12Z models are not too excited about the 95L in the 12Z model run. Long-range forecasts beyond 5 days are not accurate. So we monitor as we enter the busiest time of the season.

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 021732
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical 
Cyclone Idalia, located just to the east-southeast of Bermuda, on 
Tropical Storm Gert, located about 700 miles east-southeast of 
Bermuda, and on Tropical Storm Katia, located about 700 miles 
north-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. 

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic is 
producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity to the 
south of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Environmental conditions appear 
conducive for some gradual development of this system by the middle 
part of next week, and a tropical depression is likely to form while 
it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the 
eastern and central portions of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Another strong wave behind 95L over the west African continent.

There is a bend back to the west in the Euro 12z ensemble models.  Look at the black track line.