..TROPICAL OUTLOOK JULY 17. 2024..

 

Yesterday, the Climate Prediction Center released their weekly update of their Global Tropic Hazards Outlook. It looks like from July 31 through August 6, we could see a chance for some development noted below on the GTHO map for Week 3. However, also note that this is a long-range forecast and is subject to change.

RTW

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

..TROPICAL OUTLOOK JULY 16, 2024..

 

All remains quiet, and the ensemble models are not showing development for the rest of the month of July. Saharan dust and dry air still encompass the Atlantic, this is helping to suppress development for now. I am waiting for the Global Tropics Hazards Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center update, which should be out sometime this week. For now, take care of things around your house and make sure you have all the supplies you need.

RTW

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
NNNN

-------------------------------------------------------------------

070 
ACCA62 KNHC 161149
TWOSAT

Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones del Tiempo en el Trópico
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL
800 AM EDT martes 16 de julio de 2024

Para el Atlántico Norte...Mar Caribe y el Golfo de México:

No se espera la formación de ciclones tropicales durante los
próximos 7 días.

$$
Pronosticador Pasch

*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un
programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El
Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión
del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es
siempre la versión autorizada. ***

..TROPICAL OUTLOOK JULY 15, 2024..

 

Saharan dry air and dust continues to suppress tropical cyclone formation for now.

RTW

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

..TROPICAL OUTLOOK JULY 12, 2024..

 

All remains quiet in the tropics for now. This is a good time to check your plan of action and your supplies to make sure you are ready for whatever comes your way. 

• Check shutters, window covers, etc. 
• Generators, change the oil. Check the tank to make sure it is not rusted. After doing regular maintenance, make sure it runs. Then turn off the choke while it is running to drain gas from the feed line and carburetor. Drain left over gas from tank. They sell conversion kits for your gas generators that will make you a tri-fuel generator, so you can use gas or propane.
• Flashlights and lanterns cause battery corrosion on contacts, especially if you leave the batteries in them. Alkaline batteries tend to corrode if left in flashlights for a long period of time. Always remember to remove batteries from radios and flashlights you don't use and store them away.
• Check the tiles and the integrity of your roof. 
• Plastic tool sheds need to be strapped down. Your local home improvement store has special straps to fasten them down. 
• Get yourself some FRS radios for local communications.
• Weather Radio with AM/FM light and battery crank. 
• Large tarp to cover the roof after the storm. 

These are some of the many things you should be doing to get ready for the peak of the 2024 hurricane season. 

RTW

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Off the South Carolina Coast:
A broad area of low pressure located about a hundred miles off the 
coast of South Carolina continues to produce disorganized showers 
and thunderstorms.  Strong upper-level winds should limit any 
development of this system before it moves inland over South 
Carolina and North Carolina later today.  However, the disturbance 
could contribute to areas of heavy rainfall and possible flash 
flooding across coastal portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic 
through tonight.  For more information about the potential for heavy 
rainfall, see products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and 
your local National Weather Service office. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.


Forecaster Papin

---------------------------------------------------------------------

953 
ACCA62 KNHC 121116
TWOSAT

Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones del Tiempo en el Trópico
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL
800 AM EDT viernes 12 de julio de 2024

Para el Atlántico Norte...Mar Caribe y el Golfo de México:

Frente a la Costa de Carolina del Sur: Una amplia área de baja
presión localizada alrededor de cien millas de la costa de Carolina
del Sur continúa produciendo aguaceros y tormentas eléctricas
desorganizadas. Fuertes vientos de nivel superior deben limitar
cualquier desarrollo de este sistema antes de que se mueva tierra
adentro sobre Carolina del Sur y Carolina del Norte más tarde hoy.
Sin embargo, la perturbación podría contribuir a áreas de fuertes
lluvias y posibles inundaciones repentinas a través de porciones
costeras de las Carolinas y el Atlántico Medio hasta esta noche.
Para más información sobre el potencial de fuertes lluvias, vea los
productos emitidos por el Centro de Predicción del Tiempo y su
oficina del Servicio Nacional de Meteorología local.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 48 horas...baja...cerca del 0 por
ciento.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 7 días...baja...cerca del 0 por
ciento.

$$
Pronosticador Papin

*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un
programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El
Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión
del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es
siempre la versión autorizada. ***

..TROPICAL OUTLOOK JULY 11, 2024..

 000

ABNT20 KNHC 111116
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems: 
The Weather Prediction Center has issued its final advisory on 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Beryl, located over southeastern Canada. 

Off the Southeastern U.S. Coast:
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles off the 
southeastern U.S. coast continues to produce disorganized showers 
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions do not appear favorable 
for much additional development of this system over the next day or 
two before it moves inland over the southeastern U.S. by this 
weekend. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will be possible 
for portions of the Carolina coast late this week into the weekend. 
For more information about the potential for heavy rainfall, see 
products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and your local 
National Weather Service office. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

----------------------------------------------------------------

142 
ACCA62 KNHC 111118
TWOSAT

Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones del Tiempo en el Trópico
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL
800 AM EDT jueves 11 de julio de 2024

Para el Atlántico Norte...Mar Caribe y el Golfo de México:

Sistemas Activos: El Centro de Predicción del Tiempo ha emitido su
advertencia final sobre el Ciclón Pos-Tropical Beryl, ubicado sobre
el sureste de Canadá.

Frente a la Costa Sureste de los Estados Unidos: Una amplia área de
baja presión localizada a unos pocos cientos de millas de la costa
sureste de los Estados Unidos continúa produciendo aguaceros y
tormentas eléctricas desorganizadas. Las condiciones ambientales no
parecen favorables para mucho desarrollo adicional de este sistema
durante el próximo día o dos antes de que se mueva tierra adentro
sobre el sureste de los Estados Unidos para este fin de semana.
Independientemente del desarrollo, serán posibles fuertes lluvias
para porciones de la costa de Carolina a fines de esta semana hasta
el fin de semana. Para más información sobre el potencial de fuertes
lluvias, vea los productos emitidos por el Centro de Predicción del
Tiempo y su oficina del Servicio Nacional de Meteorología local.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 48 horas...baja...10 por ciento.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 7 días...baja...10 por ciento.

$$
Pronosticador Papin

*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un
programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El
Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión
del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es
siempre la versión autorizada. ***

..TROPICAL OUTLOOK JUNE 10, 2024..

 

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of showers and storms off the southeast U.S. coast. This is associated with a broad surface trough of low pressure that is forecast to move inland during the next few days and bring some showers and storms. This area is in a marginally favorable area for development. NHC is giving this system a low 10% formation chance within 48 hours and 7 days. Upper-level conditions don't seem that favorable in this area at this time.

Elsewhere, the Climate Prediction Center is calling for no tropical cyclone formation through July 30th. However, since atmospheric conditions can change, I will continue to monitor as usual.

Yesterday, forecasters at Colorado State University raised their forecast to 12 more for the season, for a total of 25 for the 2024 season. Beryl being the earliest cat 5 to develop in a season has prompted this urgency to up their forecast, making this a hyperactive hurricane season. Although we will be in a lull for a few weeks, forecasters say it will be short-lived and August will come in like a roaring lion. 

So take time to reinforce your house and be hurricane-ready. Have a plan of action for you and your family, and don't forget your pets. I am not trying to scare you all; I am just making sure you take this season seriously and prepare early instead of later.

RTW

https://www.miamidade.gov/global/emergency/hurricane/kits-checklists.page

https://www.ready.gov/kit  

https://www.floridadisaster.org/planprepare/hurricane-supply-checklist/

https://www.weather.gov/safety/hurricane-plan

https://www.noaa.gov/hurricane-prep

Here is the April Forecast so you can compare changes they made yesterday.

Here is July 9 updated forecast.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems: 
The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical 
Cyclone Beryl, located inland near the Indiana/Ohio border. 

1. Off the Southeastern U.S. Coast:
A broad trough of low pressure located off the southeastern U.S. 
coast is currently producing some disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear only marginally 
favorable for some additional development of this system over the 
next couple of days before it moves inland over the southeastern 
U.S. by this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.


Forecaster Papin/Hagen

..TROPICAL OUTLOOK JULY 9, 2024..

 

Good morning. The tropics remain quiet for now. Saharan dust and dry air are suppressing development at this time. According to the Climate Prediction Center, from July 10 through July 23, 2024, there should not be any tropical development in the Atlantic. I will see in a couple of days when the new Global Tropic Hazards Outlook map is published what it suggests will happen. 

RTW

000
AXNT20 KNHC 091114
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Jul 9 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 39W, south of 20W, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
observed from 03N to 09N and between 31W and 40W. The northern 
portion of the wave is embedded within a dry Saharan airmass that 
is suppressing the development of showers and thunderstorms.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 68W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are found near the
northern portion of the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 12N37W. The
ITCZ extends from 12N37W to 08N59W. A few showers are noted near
the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An expansive subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends
southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Depression Beryl
is now well inland over Arkansas and its influence over the Gulf
waters has subsided. An upper level low near the NW Bahamas 
supports a few showers over the eastern Gulf waters and a tropical
wave moving along the Bay of Campeche is also enhancing the storm
activity in the area. 

Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are present between 86W
and 94W. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure will build over the Gulf of 
Mexico during the next few of days, resulting in generally 
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas over much of the basin.
Winds will freshen up at night off NW Yucatan. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on the 
tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean.

An expansive subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends
into the Caribean Sea. The pressure gradient between this ridge
and lower pressures in the deep tropics support fresh to strong
easterly trade widns in the central Caribbean, including the
Windward Passage, and Gulf of Honduras. Latest scatterometer 
satellite data showed locally near gale-force winds off northern 
Colombia. Seas are 8-11 ft in the central Caribbean and Gulf of 
Honduras. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and seas of
4-8 ft are noted in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, a persistent subtropical ridge north of the
Caribbean will force fresh to strong easterly trade winds and 
rough seas across much of the central Caribbean through the 
forecast period. Winds may pulse to near gale at night off NW 
Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly winds will prevail in the NW 
Caribbean through midweek, pulsing to strong speeds across the 
Gulf of Honduras tonight. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Tropical Waves section for the latest details on 
the tropical wave in the central Atlantic Ocean.

Divergence aloft associated with an upper level low near the NW
Bahamas supports scattered showers to isolated strong convection
west of 71W and north of 25W. The remainder of the Atlantic is under
the influence of the Bermuda-Azores subtropical ridge centered
over the central Atlantic. A large area of dry Saharan dust is
moving across the central and eastern Atlantic, maintaining
generally dry conditions. The pressure gradient between the
aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in western Africa sustain
moderate to locally fresh northerly winds north of 15N and east of
23W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Elsewhere in the basin,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, an upper level low near the NW
Bahamas will support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
west of 70W through midweek. Otherwise, high pressure will 
prevail across the area with mainly gentle to moderate winds. 
Locally fresh to strong winds will pulse off the northern coast of
Hispaniola late this week. 

$$
Delgado

..TROPICAL STORM BERYL UPDATE!..1100 AM EDT..

 

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND FLOODING RAINFALL CONTINUING OVER EASTERN TEXAS... ...1100 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE...

11:00 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 Location: 30.1°N 95.6°W Moving: NNE at 13 mph Min pressure: 984 mb Max sustained: 70 mph

000
WTNT32 KNHC 081450
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number  40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND FLOODING
RAINFALL CONTINUING OVER EASTERN TEXAS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 95.7W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WNW OF HOUSTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from Port O'Connor to 
Mesquite Bay, TX

The Hurricane Warning from Mesquite Bay northward to Port O'Connor 
has been discontinued.

The Hurricane Warning from north of Port O'Connor to Port Bolivar 
has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port O'Connor to Sabine Pass, including Matagorda Bay and 
Galveston Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Texas coast from north of Port O'Connor northward to Sabine 
Pass

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For 
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. 

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was
located by NWS radar data near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 95.7 
West. Beryl is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 
km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward 
speed is expected tonight and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the 
center of Beryl will move over eastern Texas today, then move 
through the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley on 
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Steady weakening is forecast, and Beryl is expected to 
become a post-tropical cyclone on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. Houston Hobby Airport recently reported a wind 
gust of 84 mph (135 km/h), and Bush Intercontinental Airport 
recently reported a wind gust of 83 mph (134 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches) 
based on surface observations.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the NHC website at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions with damaging wind gusts will 
continue within the tropical storm warning area for the next 
several hours.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Freeport, TX to High Island, TX...4-6 ft
Galveston Bay...4-6 ft
High Island, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...3-5 ft
Matagorda, TX to Freeport, TX...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances.  For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL:  Heavy rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with localized amounts 
of 15 inches is expected across portions of the Upper Texas Coast 
and eastern Texas today into tonight. Considerable flash and urban 
flooding as well as minor to isolated major river flooding is 
expected.

Heavy rainfall of 3 to 5 inches, with locally higher amounts 
possible, is expected across portions of far southeastern Oklahoma, 
Arkansas and southern Missouri tonight into Tuesday. 

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding 
associated with Tropical Storm Beryl, please see the National 
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at 
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk 
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero

For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated 
this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS2 with the 
WMO header ACUS42 KWBC or at the following link: 
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html

TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are possible through tonight across 
parts of east Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas.

SURF:  Swells generated by Beryl are expected to affect eastern
Mexico and much of the northern and western Gulf Coast of the U.S. 
during the next day or so. These swells are expected to cause 
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult 
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

https://poweroutage.us/area/state/texas