There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico... RTW
Monday, June 25, 2018
TROPICAL OUTLOOK JUNE 25, 2018...1035 AM EDT
There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico... RTW
Sunday, June 24, 2018
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 24, 2018... 1019 AM EDT
National Hurricane Center
...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near the west coast of Africa along 19W from 03N to 18N. Scattered moderate convection associated to this wave is noted from 07N to 10N between 19W and 21W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 51W from 03N to 19N, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave meets the ITCZ from 06N to 08N between 50W and 55W. The axis of a tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean along 63W from eastern Venezuela northward to the Leeward Islands, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered showers are near the wave's axis. The axis of a tropical wave extends from eastern Cuba to eastern Panama. This wave, is interacting with an upper level trough extending across the SE Bahamas to the central Caribbean, and will enhance convection over Cuba today. Another tropical wave is near 89W, and extends over the Yucatan Peninsula and Guatemala into the eastern north Pacific region. This wave in conjunction with an upper level low spinning over the west-central Gulf of Mexico will continue to support convection over SE Mexico and the SW Gulf of Mexico.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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The tropics remain quiet for now... RTW
Saturday, June 23, 2018
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 23, 2018... 1122 AM EDT
National Hurricane Center
...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near the west coast of Africa along 16W from 04N-18N. Scattered moderate convection associated to this wave is noted from 06N-10N between 14W and 20W. The axis of a tropical wave extends from 18N40W to 03N41W. Isolated moderate convection is noted at the base of this wave. The axis of a tropical wave is near 57W from 04N to 18N, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N-09N between 54W and 59W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 70W from the coast of western Venezuela to eastern Hispaniola, moving W at 10-15 knots. This wave, in conjunction with an upper level trough, is helping for active convection over the northeastern Caribbean east of the wave axis. This convective activity is affecting Puerto Rico and parts of Hispaniola. The axis of a tropical wave is near 85W extending from the eastern north Pacific across western Panama to western Cuba. The wave is helping for enhanced convection over the NW Caribbean west of 78W, and the western half of Cuba. Clusters of moderate to strong convection are seen where the wave meets the monsoon trough.
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There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time... RTW
Friday, June 22, 2018
TROPICAL UPDATE JUNE 22, 2018 0400 PM EDT
National Hurricane Center
...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is emerging off the west coast of Africa and will likely be added to the 1800 UTC surface map. The Hovmoller Diagram indicates the westward propagation of the wave. A large cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 6N-10N between 11W-15W in association with this system. The axis of a tropical wave extends from 16N32W to 04N34W. African dust surrounds the wave limiting convection. A patch of low level moisture is near the northern end of the wave's axis. A tropical wave is along 50W from 6N-18N, moving W at 20 kt. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is seen near the southern end of the wave's axis from 06N-08N between 50W and 52W. This wave will pass west of 55W early on Sat, and move across the Windward Islands by Sat night. The axis of a tropical wave extends from 18N65W to the coast of Venezuela near 10N66W, moving W at 10-15 knots. The wave is generating scattered moderate convection across the basin, mainly E of 67W, including the Lesser Antilles, where showers and locally heavy rain have been reported. Upper diffluent ahead of an upper-level trough that now crosses Hispaniola is helping to induce this convective activity. Moisture related to this wave will spread out over Puerto Rico and the UK/US Virgin Islands today, reaching Dominican Republic tonight into Sat, increasing the likelihood of showers with embedded tstms. A recent scatterometer pass clearly indicates the wind shift associated with the wave's axis. A tropical wave extends from the westernmost tip of Jamaica to eastern Panama near 09N79W. Lingering moisture from this tropical wave will continue to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across Jamaica and regional waters today. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are observed between Haiti and Jamaica while some shower activity is near the wave's axis from 15N-18N. Abundant tropical moisture will persist over the NW Caribbean and central America through at least early Sat.
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Thursday, June 21, 2018
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 21, 2018... 0316 PM EDT
National Hurricane Center
...TROPICAL WAVES... As of 1200 UTC, there are four tropical waves between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. A tropical wave is along 25W from 03N-12N, moving W at 20 kt. The Hovmoller Diagram shows the westward propagation of the wave, that coincides with a modest surge of moistened air based on the TPW product. Abundant cloudiness surrounds the wave's axis but convection is limited. A tropical wave is along 34W from 3N-11N, moving W at 20 kt. This wave shows up well as a low amplitude moisture surge on the TPW animation. Scattered showers are noted where the wave meets the ITCZ. A tropical wave is along 43W from 3N-11N, moving W at about 15 knots. The wave is well depicted in the moisture product, and model diagnostics guidance. Scattered moderate convection is noted on either side of the wave's axis from 6N-8N between 40W- 46W. Another tropical wave is along 60W from 6N-17N, moving W at about 10 knots. The wave coincides with a high amplitude northward bulge of moisture, and is also well depicted in model diagnostics guidance. Scattered moderate convection is already affecting Trinidad and Tobago as well as Barbados, where showers and some tstms have been reported. Moisture associated with this feature will continue to affect the Windward Islands today. The wave will then move across the eastern Caribbean this afternoon through Fri night. The associated moisture is forecast by the GFS computer model to spread out reaching the Leeward Islands later today and tonight, and Puerto Rico on Fri, then Dominican Republic Fri night into Sat. A tropical wave is moving across the Caribbean Sea. Its axis is along 73W, and extends from Hispaniola to northern Colombia. The wave is interacting with an upper-level trough that crosses eastern Cuba. Lingering moisture from this tropical wave will continue to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across Hispaniola today. Moisture and instability related to this wave will also affect the Windward Passage and eastern Cuba, as well as Jamaica today. Currently, scattered showers and tstms are noted in the Windward Passage, across the waters between eastern Cuba and Jamaica, and E of Jamaica. This wave is forecast to move across Jamaica tonight, entering the western Caribbean Fri.
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The tropics remains quiet for now... RTW
Wednesday, June 20, 2018
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 20, 2018... 1157 AM EDT
National Hurricane Center
...TROPICAL WAVES... There are three tropical waves between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. A tropical wave is along 26W from 3N-11N, moving W 15-20 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave meets the ITCZ. A second tropical wave is along 37W/38W from 3N-11N, moving W about 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is also noted where the wave meets the ITCZ. A third tropical wave is along 55W from 5N-14N, moving W about 10 knots. A cluster of moderate convection is within about 90 nm on the west side of the wave's axis from 10N-12N A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Its axis is along 67W/68W, and extends from the Mona Passage to the coast of Venezuela. A cluster of moderate convection is over the Mona Passage.
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The tropics remain quiet for now!
Tuesday, June 19, 2018
TORPICAL OUTLOOK JUNE 18, 2018... 0426 PM EDT
National Hurricane Center
...SPECIAL FEATURE... Surface observations and NOAA Doppler weather radar data indicate that a deep layer low pressure system has consolidated W of Corpus Christi Texas near 28N98W. Although this system is producing a widespread area of cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms, interaction with land and proximity to dry air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere over W Texas and NE Mexico should prevent a tropical cyclone from forming. However, this disturbance is likely to produce additional heavy rainfall and flash flooding across portions of southern and southeastern Texas during the next few days. As much as 7 to 10 inches of additional rainfall is possible over south Texas along the Texas Coastal Bend during the next 1 to 2 days. Strong SE to S winds can be expected over the western Gulf N of 25N between 92W and 96W, primarily in bands of deep convection through this evening. Winds and seas are expected to subside Tonight and Wed as this system gradually weakens. For more details on this disturbance and the threat for heavy rainfall, please see products issued by your local weather office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave over the eastern Atlc has an axis extending from 02N19W to 11N21W, moving W from Africa around 20 kt in a low vertical shear environment. Composite TPW satellite imagery shows this system is embedded in deep layer moisture. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found from 03N to 06N between 18W and 21W. A tropical wave over the central Atlc has an axis extending from 02N33W to 11N34W, moving W around 15 kt in a moderate shear environment due to an upper-level trough over the Atlc near 40W. Dry Saharan air and dust are limiting convection on the W side of this wave. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found from 03N to 06N between 27W and 36W. A tropical wave over the west-central Atlc has an axis extending from 05N54W to 14N51W, moving W around 10 kt. GOES-16 RGB imagery shows dry air and dust surrounding the N side of the wave. Convergent upper- level winds are also inhibiting deep convection. Consequently, only spotty cloudiness and isolated showers are observed within 90 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave entering the eastern Caribbean has an axis extending from 09N66W to 19N63W, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. This wave is within a very moist environment and upper level diffluent flow, supporting scattered moderate and isolated strong convection over the Virgin Islands and Leeward Islands from 12N to 19N between 61W and 65W.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 19, 2018... 1107 AM EDT
National Hurricane Center
...SPECIAL FEATURE... Surface observations and NOAA Doppler weather radar data indicate that a surface trough associated with a low- and mid-level low pressure system has moved inland over the Texas coastal plain. Although this system is producing a widespread area of cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms, interaction with land and proximity to dry air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere should prevent a tropical cyclone forming. However, this disturbance is likely to produce additional heavy rainfall and flash flooding across portions of southern and southeastern Texas during the next few days. As much as 7 to 10 inches of rainfall is possible along the Texas Coastal bend during the next 1 to 2 days. For more details on this disturbance and the threat for heavy rainfall, please see products issued by your local weather office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis extends from 05N22W to 14N22W, moving W from Africa around 20 kt in a low vertical shear environment. Composite TPW satellite imagery shows this system is embedded in deep layer moisture. Despite the favorable environment, only moderate convection is observed from 04N to 07N between 22W and 25W. A tropical wave axis in the central Atlc extends from 04N35W to 12N34W, moving W around 15 kt in a high shear environment due to an upper-level trough over the Atlc near 40W. It is being affected by dry air and dust, and no deep convection is associated with this wave. A tropical wave axis in the west-central Atlc extends from 05N52W to 14N49W, moving W around 10 kt. GOES-16 RGB imagery shows dry air and dust intrusion in the wave environment, which along with strong wind shear is inhibiting deep convection. A tropical wave axis entering the eastern Caribbean extends from 05N65W to 16N64W, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. This wave is within a very moist environment and upper level diffluent flow, supporting scattered moderate and isolated strong convection over the Leeward Islands from 13N to 17N between 61W and 65W. A tropical wave axis over the western Caribbean extends from 10N80W to 20N80W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt in a strong wind shear environment. GOES-16 middle and lower level water vapor imagery show very dry air in the region. These two factors are hindering the development of deep convection at the time.
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The tropics remain quiet at this time. Flooding potential persist
for Southeast Texas...RTW
Monday, June 18, 2018
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 18, 2018... 0341 PM EDT
National Hurricane Center
...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave came off the coast of Africa last night. It axis extends from 05N19W to 13N18W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in a low or favorable deep layer wind shear environment. However, the GOES-16 Dust RGB and Split window imagery show the wave is being affected by dry air and dust, especially in the northern wave environment. No deep convection is associated with the wave. Isolated showers are from 05N-13N between 13W-22W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from 03N31W to 12N29W, moving W at 20 kt. Similar to the wave in the E Atlc, this wave is in a low or favorable deep layer wind shear environment. However, is being affected by dry air and dust, especially in the northern wave environment. No deep convection is associated with the wave at the time. A tropical wave is over the central Atlc with axis extending from 04N48W to 14N45W, moving W at 15-20 kt. GOES-16 RGB imagery show dry air and dust intrusion in the wave environment, which along with strong deep layer wind shear inhibit deep convection at the time. Shallow moisture and middle to upper level diffluence support isolated showers from 07N-12N between 45W-50W. A tropical wave is within 120 nm SE of the Windward Islands with axis extending from 06N60W to 14N58W, moving W at 15 kt. This wave is within a very moist environment and under middle to upper level diffluent flow, which is supporting scattered moderate convection from 07N to 16N between 57W and 63W. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending from 09N76W to 19N74W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in a strong or unfavorable deep layer wind shear environment and GOES-16 middle and lower level water vapor imagery show very dry air in the central Caribbean. These two factor are hindering the development of deep convection at the time.
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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Surface observations and WSR-88D Doppler Radar data indicate that a surface trough associated with an upper-level low pressure system has moved onto the coast of Texas. This system continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms and strong gusty winds over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding across portions of southern and southeastern Texas are likely to continue during the next few days. For more details on this disturbance and the threat for heavy rainfall, please see products issued by your local weather office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. Forecaster Roberts
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FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS! ...RTW
DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK
ralphstropicalweather.com
DAY 1-5 RAINFALL OUTLOOK DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK
LIVE NWS RADAR
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 18, 2018... 1150 AM EDT
National Hurricane Center
...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 02N28W to 12N27W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in a low or favorable deep layer wind shear envioronment. However, the GOES-16 Dust RGB and Split window imagery show the wave is being affected by dry air and dust, especially in the northern half of the wave environment. No deep convection is associated with the wave. A tropical wave is over the central Atlc with axis extending from 04N47W to 13N44W, moving W at 10 kt. Similar to the wave in the E Atlc, this wave is being affected by the presence of dry air and dust in its environment along with strong deep layer wind shear. Therefore, no deep convection is associated with this wave at this time. A tropical wave is within 225 nm SE of the Windward Islands with axis extending from 06N58W to 14N56W, moving W at 10 kt. This wave is within a very moist environment and under middle to upper level diffluent flow, which is supporting scattered moderate convection from 10N to 14N between 55W and 60W. A tropical wave moving westward over the central Caribbean has an axis extending from the Guajira Peninsula in NE Colombia near 12N73W to the S coast of the Dominican Republic near 18N71W, moving W around 15 kt. African dust surrounds the wave. As a result, only shallow moisture and virtually no convection is associated with this wave.
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000 ABNT20 KNHC 181136 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico are associated with an upper-level low pressure system interacting with a surface trough located near the Texas coast. Development of this system is not anticipated before it moves inland over Texas later today and tonight. However, heavy rainfall and flash flooding across portions of southern and southeastern Texas are likely to continue during the next few days. For more details on this disturbance and the threat for heavy rainfall, please see products issued by your local weather office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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TROPICAL OUTLOOK JUNE 17, 2018...1153 PM EDT
National Hurricane Center
...TROPICAL WAVES... Three tropical waves are noted between the W coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. A tropical wave axis extends from 02N24W to 12N23W. This system is moving W around 10 kt and is well defined in the TPW product as well as in model diagnostic guidance. Associated convection has greatly diminished during the past several hours with only scattered showers leftover. A tropical wave over the central Atlantic has an axis extending from 02N43W to 12N40W, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. A modest surge of moistened air is noted in association with the wave in TPW imagery. Only limited cloudiness and isolated showers are associated with this wave. A tropical wave over the tropical N Atlantic has an axis extending from the coast of Suriname near 04N56W to 14N53W, moving W around 15 kt. The wave coincides with a high amplitude bulge of moisture as depicted in the TPW product. Currently, scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N to 10N between 53W and 56W. A tropical wave moving westward over the central Caribbean has an axis extending from the Guajira Peninsula in NE Colombia near 12N73W to the S coast of the Dominican Republic near 18N71W, moving W around 15 kt. African dust surrounds the wave. As a result, only shallow moisture and virtually no convection is associated with this wave. A tropical wave moving across the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the Tropical NE Pacific extends northward through the Chivela Pass into the Bay of Campeche near 20N95W and is moving W around 15 kt. TPW satellite imagery indicates this wave is embedded in deep layer moisture. The wave is also interacting with an upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is occurring S of 20N E of the wave axis to 93W.
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Sunday, June 17, 2018
TROPICAL OUTLOOK JUNE 17, 2018... 1043 AM EDT
National Hurricane Center
...TROPICAL WAVES... Three tropical waves are noted between the W coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. A tropical wave axis extends from 04N21W to 13N20W. This system is moving W around 10 kt well defined in the TPW product and in model diagnostics guidance. Scattered moderate convection is present within 120 nm of the wave axis between 04N and 09N. A tropical wave over the E Atlantic has an axis extending from 03N41W to 13N39W, moving W around 10 kt. A modest surge of moistened air is noted in association with the wave in TPW imagery. Only limited cloudiness and isolated showers are associated with this wave. A tropical wave over the central Atlantic has an axis extending from 05N54W to 14N52W, moving W around 20 kt. The wave coincides with a high amplitude bulge of moisture as depicted in the TPW product. Currently, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen from 08N to 11N between 52W and 54W. A tropical wave moving westward over the eastern Caribbean has an axis extending from 12N70W to 19N68W, moving W around 15 kt. African dust surrounds the wave. As a result, only shallow moisture and virtually no convection is associated with this wave. A tropical wave moving across the border of Guatemala and Mexico has an axis extending from 12N92W to 19N92W and is moving W around 10 kt. TPW satellite imagery indicates this wave is embedded in deep layer moisture. Scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 11N to 20N between 90W and 95W.
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Saturday, June 16, 2018
TROPICAL OUTLOOK JUNE 16, 2018... 0115 PM EDT
National Hurricane Center
...TROPICAL WAVES... Three tropical waves are noted between the W coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. A tropical wave is added to the 1200 UTC analysis/surface map along 18W/19W based on the Hovmoller Diagram that shows the westward propagation of the wave. This system is also well defined on the TPW product, and model diagnostics guidance. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is near the southern end of the wave's axis from 5N-9N between 16W-19W. A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic, with axis extending from 13N33W to 04N34W, moving W at 10 kt. A modest surge of moistened air is noted in association with the wave in TPW imagery. Scattered showers are where the wave meets the ITCZ axis. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic, with axis extending from 15N47W to 04N48W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave coincides with a high amplitude bulge of moisture as depicted in the TPW product. Currently, shallow moisture and isolated showers are observed near the wave's axis. This wave will move across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles Sun night through Mon night, and the eastern Caribbean Tue through Wed night. A tropical wave is moving westward across the eastern Caribbean. Its axis extends along 66W/67W. African dust surrounds the wave. As a result, shallow moisture with embedded showers is associated with the wave. This wave will move across the remainder of the eastern Caribbean through Sun, the central Caribbean Sun night through Tue and the western Caribbean Tue night through Wed night. A tropical wave is moving across Central America, with axis along 87W/88W from 11N-20N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is near the southern end of the wave's axis affecting parts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador. The GFS model indicates plenty of moisture over Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend.
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