Saturday, July 7, 2018

BERYL AND TD THREE UPDATE JULY 7, 2018


BERYL
000
WTNT32 KNHC 072032
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022018
500 PM AST Sat Jul 07 2018

...BERYL WEAKENING WHILE ACCELERATING TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 52.7W
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Guadeloupe.

The government of St. Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
St. Maarten.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress
of Beryl.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was
located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 52.7 West.  Beryl is
moving faster toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h).  A
west-northwestward motion with an additional increase in forward
speed is expected during the next few days.  On the forecast track,
the center of Beryl will approach the Lesser Antilles through
Sunday, cross the island chain Sunday night, and move south of the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional weakening is forecast during the
next 48 hours, and Beryl is likely to weaken to a tropical
depression after moving across the Lesser Antilles.  The system
could degenerate into an open trough by the time it reaches the
central Caribbean Sea and Hispaniola Monday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in Dominica and
Guadeloupe Sunday night.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in
the watch areas of the Lesser Antilles by late Sunday or Monday.

RAINFALL:  Beryl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches through Monday across the southern Leeward and
northern Windward Islands.  Across the remainder of the Leeward and
Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, rainfall
amounts of 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts are expected.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
 




 
TD THREE
000
WTNT33 KNHC 072031
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018
500 PM EDT Sat Jul 07 2018

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
TONIGHT OR SUNDAY...
...LITTLE MOVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.9N 75.3W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the coast of North Carolina should monitor the
progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three
was located near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 75.3 West. The
depression is stationary and little motion is expected during the
next 2 or 3 days. This motion will keep the cyclone meandering well
off the North Carolina coast.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm
tonight or Sunday.

The minimum central pressure estimated from earlier reconnaissance
data is 1014 mb (29.95 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by the depression are expected to increase
and affect portions of the coasts of North Carolina and the
mid-Atlantic states this weekend.  These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 
 


 

Friday, July 6, 2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE JUL 6 2018... 0509 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center
000
WTNT33 KNHC 062039
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018
500 PM EDT Fri Jul 06 2018

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
...EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.2N 73.8W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1016 MB...30.01 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the coast of North Carolina should monitor the
progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical
Depression Three was located near latitude 32.2 North, longitude
73.8 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near
5 mph (7 km/h).  The depression should slow down and meander of well
offshore of the coast of North Carolina through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Saturday,
with gradual strengthening expected through Monday.  A
reconnaissance plane is scheduled to investigate the cyclone on
Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1016 mb (30.01 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Bares watching intensity shows it strengthening...RTW 
http://ralphstropicalweather.com/


 

HURRICANE BERYL 0500 PM EDT JULY 6, 2018 UPDATE

000
WTNT32 KNHC 062044 CCA
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number   6...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022018
500 PM AST Fri Jul 06 2018

Corrected to indicate the time of intermediate advisory issuance at
800 PM AST and to remove extraneous text in the first paragraph of
the Discussion and Outlook section.

...MINIATURE BERYL SPEEDING WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 47.8W
ABOUT 965 MI...1555 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has issued a Hurricane Watch for
Dominica.

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Martinique, Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Guadeloupe
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Beryl, as additional watches could be required for other
islands tonight or early Saturday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 47.8 West.  Beryl is moving
toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h).  A faster westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected to begin over the weekend and
continue through early next week.  On the forecast track, the
center of Beryl will approach the Lesser Antilles over the weekend
and cross the island chain late Sunday or Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and Beryl could still be a hurricane when it reaches the
Lesser Antilles late Sunday or Monday.  Weakening is expected once
Beryl reaches the eastern Caribbean Sea on Monday, but the system
may not degenerate into an open trough until it reaches the vicinity
of Hispaniola and the central Caribbean Sea.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles
(55 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm or hurricane conditions are possible within
the watch areas by late Sunday or Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
-------------------------------------------------------------------

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST JUL 6 2018...0444 PM EDT

 Special Message from NHCIssued 6 Jul 2018 20:10 UTC   
NHC will initiate advisories at 5 PM EDT on Tropical Depression Three located a couple hundred miles southeast of the North Carolina coast.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 6, 2018... 0431 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Beryl near 10.7N 46.5W 994 mb at 11 AM EDT, or about 
1045 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles, moving W at 13 
kt. Maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt. Scattered 
moderate to strong convection is observed within 30 nm east and 
150 nm west of the center. Beryl will move to 11.3N 47.9W this 
evening, 12.2N 50.1W Sat morning, 13.3N 53.0W Sat evening, 14.2N 
56.6W Sun morning, and weaken to a tropical storm near 16.2N 
64.6W Mon morning. Beryl will move inland over Hispaniola near 
18.5N 72.0W early Tue, and dissipate on Wed.

A well-defined surface low is located a few hundred miles 
southeast of the North Carolina coast. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms observed mainly within 210 nm over the south 
semicircle are beginning to organize into persistent bands. 
Environmental conditions are very favorable for tropical 
development as the low moves slowly northwestward and then 
forecast to meander off the coast of North Carolina. This system 
will likely become a tropical depression. Refer to the latest 
NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for additional information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed from 04N to 16N along 26W and is 
estimated to be progressing west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is observed south of 10N within 210 nm east of the 
wave axis. Expect a fresh northeast to east to southeast wind 
shift along the wave axis as it continues westward across the 
tropical Atlantic.  

A tropical wave is analyzed from 05N to 17N along 57W, and is 
estimated to be progressing west at 18 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is observed within 75 nm either side of a line from 
07N53W to 12N61W.

A tropical wave is moving west across the Yucatan Peninsula, 
Belize and Guatemala accompanied by scattered thunderstorms 
mainly to the north of 15N. The northern extent of this wave 
will pass west across the southwest Gulf of Mexico early net 
week.  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
-------------------------------------------------------------

 

STORM INVEST 96L OFF THE EAST COAST OF GEORGIA JULY 6, 2018...1211 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center
000
ABNT20 KNHC 061132
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jul 6 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Beryl, located over the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean more than a thousand miles east-southeast of the Lesser
Antilles.

Showers and thunderstorms are increasing in association with a
well-defined low pressure system located a few hundred miles
southeast of the North Carolina coast.  Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for additional development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the next
couple of days while the system moves slowly northwestward and
stalls or meanders near the coast of North Carolina over the
weekend.  Interests along the North Carolina and South Carolina
coasts should monitor the progress of this system during the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Beryl are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. Forecast/Advisories on Beryl
are issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Berg https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
------------------------------------------------------------------
 

HURRICANE BERYL MAY HOLD HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE REACHING LESSER ANTILLES JUL 6, 2018... 1120 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center
000
WTNT32 KNHC 061435
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022018
1100 AM AST Fri Jul 06 2018

...BRAZEN BERYL A LITTLE STRONGER...
...NOW FORECAST TO STILL BE A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE LESSER
ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.7N 46.5W
ABOUT 1045 MI...1685 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of
Beryl, as hurricane watches could be needed for some of the islands
by tonight.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 10.7 North, longitude 46.5 West.  Beryl is moving
toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h).  A faster westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected to begin over the weekend and
continue through early next week.  On the forecast track, the
center of Beryl will approach the Lesser Antilles over the weekend
and cross the island chain late Sunday or Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days, and Beryl is expected to still be a hurricane
when it reaches the Lesser Antilles late Sunday or Monday.
Weakening is expected once Beryl reaches the eastern Caribbean
Sea on Monday, but the system may not degenerate into an open trough
until it reaches the vicinity of Hispaniola and the central
Caribbean Sea.

Beryl is a compact hurricane.  Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Looks like the Islands may experience hurricane force winds from tiny
Beryl.  Forecast intensity are now showing possibly a cat 2 or 1 passing
over the Leeward.  There after it looks like Beryl will drop down
intensity to a tropical storm as it heads toward Dominican. Wind shear
in the Central Caribbean is supposed to be strong but as we well know
weather pattern changes quickly so will watch closely...RTW

Thursday, July 5, 2018

TROPICAL STORM BERYL JULY 5, 2018... 1100 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center
WTNT32 KNHC 060231
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022018
1100 PM AST Thu Jul 05 2018

...TINY BERYL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.4N 44.0W
ABOUT 1215 MI...1955 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was
located near latitude 10.4 North, longitude 44.0 West. Beryl is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion should continue through tonight.  A fast westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected through the weekend.  On the
forecast track, the center of Beryl will remain east of the Lesser
Antilles through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast, and Beryl
could become a hurricane on Friday.  Beryl is forecast to degenerate
into a strong open trough just east of the Lesser Antilles over the
weekend.

Beryl is a tiny tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds only
extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Tropical storm beryl continues to become better organized and we
could see a cat 1 hurricane on Friday.  However this hurricane status
should be short lived as Beryl encounters strong wind shear east of
the Lesser Antilles and even stronger wind shear in the eastern and
central Caribbean.  Beryl will bring tropical storm conditions to the
Lesser Antilles in the coming days...RTW
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