Friday, August 17, 2018

ERNESTO AND INVEST 99L UPDATE AUG 17, 2018... 1202 PM EDT

ERNESTO UPDATE:
535 
WTNT35 KNHC 171441
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052018
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 17 2018

...ERNESTO STILL A TROPICAL STORM...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...47.1N 32.9W
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM NNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 47.1 North, longitude 32.9 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the northeast near 30 mph (48 km/h), and an
even faster motion toward the northeast or east-northeast is
expected during the next day or two.  On the forecast track, the
post-tropical cyclone or its remnants will move across Ireland and
the United Kingdom Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
While little change in strength is forecast during the next 36
hours, Ernesto is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone tonight
and then become extratropical as it merges with a frontal zone on
Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Information on rainfall and wind forecasts for Ireland can be
found in products issued by Met Eireann at www.met.ie and for the
United Kingdom in products issued by the United Kingdom Met Office
at www.metoffice.gov/uk.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
-------------------------------------------------------------------
STORM INVEST 99L
889 
ABNT20 KNHC 171131
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ernesto, located several hundred miles northwest of the
Azores.

A tropical wave located about 400 miles east-southeast of the
Windward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are only marginally
conducive, and significant development of this system is not
anticipated.  This disturbance is moving westward at about 15 mph
and is forecast to move through the Windward Islands on Saturday,
where it could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the
Lesser Antilles during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown
-----------------------------------------------------------------
ERNESTO TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL TONIGHT!
 
STORM INVEST 99L NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE 
ANTILLES.  INTENSITY MODELS CALL FOR A CAT 1 HURRICANE BUT LOOKING AT 
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS THEY ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AS THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARD THE EAST CARIBBEAN.  DEVELOPMENT IF ANY WILL BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AND SHORT LIVED...RTW 
https://ralphstropicalweather.com/ 
 


 STORM INVEST 99L

 



WEBSITE EDITOR NOT WORKING UPDATE...AUG 17, 2018...0945 AM EDT

Just want to thank you all for your patience while I sorted out the issue I was having with the website editor.  Tech support brought to my attention that since they updated my website with the latest SSL certificate to make my site safer for you all to visit, it can become a problem when the person editing the website such as myself adds html scripts from a third party to the website.  Apparently the animated satellite from WSI intellicast conflicts with my SSL and this causes the editor to hang up and not allow me in to be able to edit website.  So they had to reset it so I can go back in and remove the animated satellite and change it with a still image. 

This to me is a pain since now I have to manually update image.  Now if you want to see an animated satellite from them you need to click on image and go to their page.  So RTW website is back and running again.  I will be updating the site within the next hour or so and  will post a link here when the website is ready for viewing.

Thanks for the patience and support.
RTW

Thursday, August 16, 2018

ERNESTO TURNS TROPICAL AS IT NEARS COOLER WATERS AUG 16, 2018... 0439 PM EDT

ERNESTO UPDATE:
970 
WTNT35 KNHC 162031
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052018
500 PM AST Thu Aug 16 2018

...ERNESTO BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM WHILE HEADING TOWARD COOLER
WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...43.0N 41.0W
ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 43.0 North, longitude 41.0 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h) A faster
northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected during the
next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Although Ernesto is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone
tonight or early Friday, some strengthening is possible during the
next 24 hours.  Little change is expected late Friday through
Saturday before the post-tropical cyclone merges with a frontal
zone near Ireland and the United Kingdom.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
mainly to the east and southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown970 
WTNT35 KNHC 162031
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052018
500 PM AST Thu Aug 16 2018

...ERNESTO BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM WHILE HEADING TOWARD COOLER
WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...43.0N 41.0W
ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 43.0 North, longitude 41.0 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h) A faster
northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected during the
next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Although Ernesto is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone
tonight or early Friday, some strengthening is possible during the
next 24 hours.  Little change is expected late Friday through
Saturday before the post-tropical cyclone merges with a frontal
zone near Ireland and the United Kingdom.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
mainly to the east and southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 
-------------------------------------------------------------------



 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 16, 2018... 0320 PM EDT

STORM INVEST 99L
571 
ABNT20 KNHC 161737
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 16 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical
Storm Ernesto located several hundred miles east-southeast of Cape
Race, Newfoundland.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
about 700 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands is associated
with a tropical wave.  Some development of this system is possible
over the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at
around 15 mph toward the Windward Islands. By late Saturday,
unfavorable environmental conditions should limit the chances for
additional development while the system moves over the eastern
Caribbean Sea.  Regardless of development, this system is
likely to bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Lesser
Antilles on Friday and Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 
--------------------------------------------------------------------
INVEST 99L HAS NOW A LOW 20% CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITHIN 48 HRS AND
A LOW 20% CHANCE WITHIN 5-DAYS.  ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST
A WEAK AND SHORT LIVED SYSTEM AS IT ENTERS THE EAST CARIBBEAN.  THE
LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF 99L...RTW  




TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
105 
AXNT20 KNHC 161803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
203 PM EDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Subtropical Storm Ernesto at 16/1500 UTC is near 
42.0N 43.2W, or 510 nmi to the ESE of Cape Race in Newfoundland. 
Ernesto is moving NE at 14 knots. The estimated minimum central 
pressure is 1007 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 40 
knots with gusts to 50 knots. Scattered moderate convection is 
from 39N to 46N between 39W and 44W. Please read the latest NHC 
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC 
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 06N-17N
along 23W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in a moderate deep 
layer wind shear environment, and CIRA LPW imagery shows dry air 
affecting the wave. These two factors are contributing to the 
lack of convection at this time.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
04N-16N along 49W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is in a low deep 
layer wind shear environment, and CIRA LPW imagery shows abundant
low level moisture associated with it. These factors along with
upper level diffluence support scattered moderate convection and
isolated tstms from 07N-18N between 46W-60W. 

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis extending from
09N-18N along 65W, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is in a 
moderate to strong deep layer wind shear environment. GOES-16 
water vapor imagery at the lower levels show very dry air over 
this region of the Caribbean. There is no convection associated 
with this wave at this time. 

A tropical wave is in the Yucatan Peninsula S of 21N with axis
along 89W, moving W at 10-15 kt. GOES-16 water vapor imagery at 
the lower levels shows very dry air over this region, which in 
part is hindering convection at the time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 
12N16W to 09N29W. The ITCZ begins near 09N29W and continues to 
10N36W to 11N47W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
from 11N-14N E of 18W. Isolated moderate convection is within 120
nm either side of the ITCZ between 27W-37W. For more information
about convection, see the tropical waves section. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The Bermuda high extends a ridge axis SW across Florida and large
portions of the Gulf to 96W, and weak winds in the range of 5-10 
kt prevail in the region. Inflow of shallow moisture from the 
Caribbean by southeasterly wind along with a middle level inverted
trough in the E basin support scattered showers and tstms N of 
24N E of 90W. Winds in this region may be slightly higher in the 
range of 15-20 kt enhanced by the convection. Otherwise, a surface
trough is in the W Bay of Campeche supporting scattered heavy 
showers and tstms within 75 nm of the coast of Vera Cruz. Surface
ridging will prevail across the basin through early next week. 
Showers over the NE basin are forecast to continue through Sat 
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

CIRA LPW imagery shows abundant shallow moisture across most of 
the Caribbean. In the western basin, diffluent flow aloft supports 
a broad area of scattered showers and tstms from 11N-18N W of 76W.
A tropical wave is moving across the E basin, however both 
Saharan Air Layer dry air and strong deep layer wind shear are 
suppressing the development of convection at the time. Otherwise,
surface ridging extending from the Atlc continues to support 
fresh to near gale force winds in the south-central Caribbean that
is forecast to continue the next two days...strongest winds will 
be along the coast of Colombia. A tropical wave within 700 nm SE 
of the Lesser Antilles will move across the Islands Sat morning 
along with showers. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Bermuda high and the Azores high covers most of the Atlc ocean
mainly supporting fair weather. A weakness in the ridge is
analyzed as a 1019 mb low centered near 32N55W from which a
surface trough extends SW to 24N63W. Scattered showers and tstms
are within 150 nm ahead of the low and trough N of 27N. A large 
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is SE of Lesser 
Antilles associated with a tropical wave. Some development of 
this system is possible over the next couple of days while it 
moves west-northwestward toward the Windward Islands. By late 
Saturday, unfavorable environmental conditions should limit the 
chances for additional development while the system moves over the
eastern Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system is 
likely to bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Lesser 
Antilles on Friday and Saturday. For further information 
associated with the tropical waves, see section above. 

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos/Hagen 
------------------------------------------------------------------


WEBSITE EDITOR NOT LOADING UPDATE! AUG 16, 2018... 0254 PM EDT

I just wanted to update the issues I am having connecting the the server provider I use to publish my RTW website.  It seems that after they added the SSL certificate to secure my site and make it safer for my visitors.  The SSL has found some third party images that auto update from intellicast that has expired certificate and I have to remove them.  However, until they do that on their side, I will have no connection to the server and no use of the editor.  They are still working to get me back on line, so on the mean time the backup is here on the blog as usual.  Once again I apologize for the inconvenience.

Ralph's Tropical Weather (RTW)

ERNESTO UPDATE AND TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 16, 2018...

ERNESTO UPDATE:
168 
WTNT35 KNHC 161451
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052018
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 16 2018

...ERNESTO HEADING FOR COOLER WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.0N 43.2W
ABOUT 585 MI...945 KM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Ernesto
was located near latitude 42.0 North, longitude 43.2 West.  The
storm is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h).  A
significantly faster northeastward motion is expected during the
next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days.  Ernesto is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone
tonight or early Friday, and merge with a frontal zone as it
approaches Ireland and the United Kingdom late Saturday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) primarily to
the east and southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL OUTLOOK:
666 
AXNT20 KNHC 161205
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Subtropical Storm Ernesto at 16/0900 UTC is near 
40.8N 44.1W, or 975 km to the SE of Cape Race in Newfoundland. 
Ernesto is moving NNE at 11 knots. The estimated minimum central 
pressure is 1008 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 
knots with gusts to 45 knots. Scattered moderate convection is 
from 38N to 43N between 40W and 45W. Please read the latest NHC 
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC 
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 21W, from 04N-20N. There is no convection
associated with this wave at this time.

A tropical wave is along 48W, from 03N-18N. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N-17N between 47W-58W.

A tropical wave is along 61W, from 09N-21N. There is no convection
associated with this wave at this time. 

A tropical wave is along 89W S of 22N. This wave stretches into 
the eastern Pacific Ocean. There is no convection associated with
this wave at this time. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 
12N16W to 08N30W. The ITCZ begins near 08N30W and continues to 
07N40W to 09N47W then resumes near 08N49W to 07N57W. For
convection information see the tropical waves section. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level low is centered SE of Louisiana supporting
isolated rainshowers in the NE Gulf. Middle level diffluent flow
support scattered showers and tstms in the SE basin.

A surface ridge that extends westward from the Atlantic Ocean 
into the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue across the region 
into early next week. A nocturnal surface trough will move off the
Yucatan Peninsula into the SW Gulf of Mexico each night, 
accompanied by a surge of fresh NE to E winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from an Andros Island cyclonic
circulation center, to a second cyclonic circulation center that
is in northern Belize, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the
areas of upper level cyclonic wind flow with the trough. 

The monsoon trough is along 07N/08N from 75W in Colombia beyond
84W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Isolated moderate rainshowers
are from 15N southward from 72W westward, in an area of middle
level to lower level cyclonic wind flow.

A surface ridge, that is across the western Atlantic Ocean, will 
maintain fresh to occasionally strong trade winds in the south 
central Caribbean Sea into early next week. Gentle to moderate
trade winds are expected elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N44W, in the central
Atlantic Ocean, to 27N47W, to an Atlantic Ocean cyclonic
circulation center that is near 22N60W, to a cyclonic circulation
center that is along the coast of the Dominican Republic near
19N69W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea
from 15N northward between 60W and the Windward Passage, and it
spans the Atlantic Ocean within 240 nm on either side of the line
that passes through 32N44W 27N50W 22N60W, to the northern coast of
Puerto Rico along 66W/67W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in
the area of the upper level cyclonic wind flow. A surface trough
extends from a 1016 mb low pressure center that is near 33N57W,
through 30N58W, to 25N64W.

An upper level trough extends from an Andros Island cyclonic
circulation center, to a second cyclonic circulation center that
is in northern Belize, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the
areas of upper level cyclonic wind flow with the trough. 

Surface high pressure will continue across the area through
Monday.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MF/NR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING INTO COOLER WATERS AND EVENTUALLY BECOME
EXTRA-TROPICAL.  INVEST 99L MOVING CLOSER TO THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH
STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR WEAK DEVELOPMENT BEFORE IT DISSIPATES IN THE 
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...RTW
 
STILL WORKING WITH THE SITE PROVIDER TO SEE WHY I CAN'T CONNECT TO
THEIR SERVER SO I CAN EDIT AND PUBLISH RTW WEBSITE.  I WILL KEEP YOU
POSTED!... RTW 



 


WEBSITE SERVER PROBLEMS AGAIN! AUG 16, 2018 0905 AM EDT

Well this is getting really ridiculous with this web site builder and servers.  It seems like at least once a month or even twice a month, I loose connection to their server, and I am unable to edit and publish RTW website.  This is annoying and it is not fair to those who have donated to have RTW website on the web.  I will continue to post maps and tropical updates on the blog because so far it seems to be more stable, and is also a good back up if the site server is down.  I apologize for the inconvenience this is causing but it is out of my control.  I have open several tickets with support but this continues to happen.  Either they are doing unannounced maintenance or they have a serious problems with their servers.  Check back later to see if this has been resolved and once again I am sorry for the inconvenience.  

Ralph
Ralph's Tropical Weather (RTW)

Wednesday, August 15, 2018

ERNESTO UPDATE AND TROPIC OUTLOOK AUG 18, 2018...

ERNESTO UPDATE
951 
WTNT35 KNHC 152035
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052018
500 PM AST Wed Aug 15 2018

...ERNESTO MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.0N 45.7W
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Ernesto
was located near latitude 39.0 North, longitude 45.7 West. The storm
is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h).  A turn toward the
north-northeast is forecast tonight, and a faster northeastward
motion is expected by late Thursday and should continue through
early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. The system
is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone Thursday night or
early Friday, and merge with a frontal zone near Ireland and the
United Kingdom on Saturday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 
-----------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL OUTLOOK
956 
AXNT20 KNHC 151809
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
209 PM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Subtropical Storm Ernesto is centered near 38.1N 46.0W at 15/1500
UTC or 600 nm SE of Cape Race Newfoundland, moving N at 7 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is just off the coast of W Africa 
along 19W, from 05N-16N, moving W at 15 kt. Rainshowers are 
possible within 300 nm on either side of the wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W, from 06N-19N, 
moving W at 15 kt. Rainshowers are possible within 300 nm on 
either side of the wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W, from 06N-22N, 
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are from 15N-18N between 50W-
60W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W, from 08N-22N, moving 
W at 15 kt. This wave is repositioned along a 700 mb axis. This is
now the only wave located in the Caribbean Sea. Scattered 
moderate convection is S of W Cuba from 19N- 22N between 80W-84W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa from near 
09N13W, to 07N21W. The ITCZ extends from 07N21W to 10N36W. The
ITCZ continues W of a tropical wave from 10N40W to 08N55W. Besides
the showers mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N-12N between 
40W-47W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

NE upper level winds are over the Gulf of Mexico due to a large
upper level high centered over N Mexico near 29N106W. At the
surface, a 1023 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 
30N68W. Surface ridging extends from the high to the NE Gulf of 
Mexico. Widely scattered moderate convection is over the E Gulf 
from 24N-30N between 83W-90W. Elsewhere, widely scattered 
moderate convection is over the Bay of Campeche from 19N-23N 
between 96W-98W.

The surface ridge, extending westward from the Atlantic Ocean 
into the northern Gulf of Mexico will prevail across the region 
for the rest of the week. A nocturnal surface trough will move 
off the Yucatan Peninsula into the SW Gulf of Mexico each night, 
accompanied by a surge of fresh NE to E winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical waves is over the W Caribbean Sea. See above. 

A small upper level low is centered over the N Bahamas near
25N78W producing scattered showers. Another upper level low is
centered over the Gulf of Honduras near 18N86W. Upper level
diffluence from this low is enhancing the convection S of W Cuba.

The monsoon trough is along 09N from Costa Rica to N Colombia.  
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the SW
Caribbean S of 13N between 70W-80W.

A surface ridge across the western Atlantic Ocean will maintain 
fresh trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea for the rest
of the week. Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected 
elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is off the coast of N Florida. Scattered
showers are over the W Atlantic N of 28N and W of 75W. A large 
upper level high is centered over the W Atlantic near 32N56W. 
Upper level diffluence E of this center is enhancing convection
near 30N47W. 

At the surface, a 1023 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic 
near 30N68W. A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 32N55W 
to 26N58W. Scattered moderate convection is from 26N-30N between 
56W-61W. The tail end of another surface trough extends from 
32N46W to 27N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from 29N-32N 
between 45W-49W. A large 1028 mb high is centered over the E 
Atlantic near 38N28W with ridging N of 23N between 15W-45W. 

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
---------------------------------------------------------------
Ernesto expected to weaken as it moves over cooler waters
of the north Atlantic.  I am monitoring an area of showers
storms between 50°-40° West and 10° North that has a slight
chance for short term development...RTW 
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE SERVER TO MY SITE PROVIDER
SEEMS TO BE TEMPORARY DOWN SO CHECK BACK LATER.
ALSO NOTE THAT I WAS UNABLE TO UPDATE RTW TRACK MAP.
BECAUSE OF SERVER PROBLEM...RTW
https://ralphstropicalweather.com/
 




  


ERNESTO UPDATE AND TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 15, 2018... 1100 AM EDT

ERNESTO
591 
WTNT35 KNHC 151451
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052018
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 15 2018

...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO SUBTROPICAL STORM
ERNESTO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.1N 46.0W
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Ernesto
was located near latitude 38.1 North, longitude 46.0 West. The storm
is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h).  A turn toward the
north-northeast is expected later today, and a faster northeastward
motion is expected by late Thursday and should continue through
early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Some additional strengthening is possible
during the next 24 hours.  The system is expected to become a
post-tropical cyclone Thursday night or early Friday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 
------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
024 
AXNT20 KNHC 151203
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
803 AM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

At 15/0900 UTC, the center of Subtropical Depression Five is 
located near latitude 37.6 North, longitude 45.6 West, about 882 nm
W of the Azores. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 
mb (29.80 inches). The subtropical depression is moving toward the
north near 4 kt, and this general motion with a slight increase 
in forward speed is expected today. A faster northeastward motion 
is forecast to occur on Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained 
winds are near 30 kt with higher gusts. Some strengthening is 
forecast during the next day or so, and the subtropical depression
is expected to become a subtropical storm later today.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W, from 22N southward,
moving W at 15 kt. Rainshowers are possible within 300 nm on 
either side of the wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W, from 20N southward,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are from 15N-18N between
50W-60W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W from 21N southward,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is N of Jamaica
from 18N-20N between 75W-78W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is over N Colombia and NW Venezuela between
07N-12N between 70W-78W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W, from 23N southward,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave
axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, to 11N18W, 10N20W, and then to 10N33W. The 
ITCZ is along 09N36W 08N43W 07N48W. Besides the convection
mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 05N-11N between 39W-47W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

NE upper level winds are over the Gulf of Mexico due to a large
upper level high centered over N Mexico near 29N106W. At the
surface, a 1022 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 
30N70W. Surface ridging extends from the high to the NE Gulf of 
Mexico. Isolated moderate convection is over the NE Gulf from 25N-
29N between 83W-88W. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is
over the Bay of Campeche from 17N-22N between 95W-98W.

The surface ridge, extending westward from the Atlantic Ocean 
into the northern Gulf of Mexico will prevail across the region 
for the rest of the week. A nocturnal surface trough will move 
off the Yucatan Peninsula into the SW Gulf of Mexico each night, 
accompanied by a surge of fresh NE to E winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean Sea. See above. 

An upper level trough passes over Andros Island in the Bahamas, 
to Belize in Central America. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover
the area that runs from Haiti to Cuba, and from Honduras to 
Guatemala to SE Mexico into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. 
Rainshowers are possible also from 15N northward from 80W 
westward, and elsewhere from 70W westward.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is about 100 nm to the
north of the northern coast of Puerto Rico. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are within 360 nm of the center in NE semicircle.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 73W in Colombia and 
84W in southern Costa Rica. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is over Panama, N Colombia, and NW Venezuela 
between 07N-12N between 70W-82W.

A surface ridge across the western Atlantic Ocean will maintain 
fresh trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea for the rest
of the week. Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected 
elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is along the coast of the SE U.S.A., 
passing through 32N76W to Andros Island in the Bahamas, to Belize 
in Central America. Isolated moderate rainshowers are to the NW of
the line that runs through 32N70W to 28N80W along the Florida 
coast, from Haiti to Cuba, and from Honduras to Guatemala to SE 
Mexico into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Rainshowers are 
possible over the W Atlantic W of 73W to include the Bahamas. 

An upper level trough passes through 32N37W in the north central
Atlantic Ocean, to 22N47W to 14N60W, just to the east of
Martinique and Saint Lucia. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
within 480 nm to the north of the trough between 49W and 60W.

A surface trough passes through 32N48W to 26N56W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 26N northward
between 44W and 60W.

Gentle to moderate trade winds, with a 30N surface ridge, will 
prevail across the region for the rest of the week. 

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
---------------------------------------------------------------
ERNESTO IS NOT A THREAT LAND AT THIS TIME.  ELSEWHERE
THE TROPICS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET FOR NOW...RTW
https://ralphstropicalweather.com/




  

Tuesday, August 14, 2018

TROPICAL OUTLOOK AUG 14, 2018... 0342 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center
469 
AXNT20 KNHC 141759
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
159 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A low pressure system centered near 37N47W is producing a large 
area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms east of the 
center. Environmental conditions may become conducive for some 
development by Wednesday. The system is forecast to move NE over 
colder waters Thursday and Friday. There is medium potential for 
this low to become a subtropical cyclone during the next 48 
hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W, from 08N to 20N, 
moving west at 15 kt. Scattered rain showers are in the monsoon 
trough area from 07N to 10N between 26W and 33W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W from 08N to 21N, 
moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is in the 
monsoon trough area from 07N to 09N between 46W and 55W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W from 10N to 22N, 
moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is along 
the coast of N Hispaniola from 18N to 22N between 68W and 72W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W from 10N to 22N, 
moving west at 15 kt. The wave is enhancing scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection along the monsoon trough south of 12N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N15W 
to 10N30W to 09N42W. The ITCZ continues from 09N42W to 08N450W to
the coast of South America near 06N55W. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 06N to 09N between 37W and 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation is over southern Mexico near
18N100W. Isolated showers are over the area. Upper level cyclonic
wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico south of 24N and west of 90W.
A broad upper level anticyclonic circulation centered near 28N94W
spans the rest of the area. Widely scattered moderate rain 
showers are over the NE Gulf from 26N to 31N between 82W and 87W.

On the surface a surface trough is over the NE Gulf from 31N86W 
to 28N90W. Another surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche 
from 20N95W to 17N94W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the 
trough axis. 

A nocturnal trough will develop during the evening hours in the 
Yucatan Peninsula, before pushing offshore into the SW Gulf each 
night. A surge of fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds will 
accompany this trough. The trough will become weaker by the middle
of the week, allowing the winds to diminish. A surface ridge will
support light to moderate E to SE winds across the remainder of 
the basin through Friday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation is along the coast of N Cuba  
near 23N78W. Upper level diffluence is over Hispaniola enhancing
convection. Another upper level cyclonic circulation is over the
NW Caribbean near 19N85W. Upper level diffluence is over Honduras
and Nicaragua enhancing convection.  

The monsoon trough is along 09N between 73W and 85W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is S of 12N between 74W and
84W, to include N Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica. 

Surface high pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to 
strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through tonight. 
Winds along the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, 
have begun to subside, and continue during the middle of the week 
as western Atlantic Ocean high pressure slowly weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is off the coast of N Florida. Scattered
showers are over the W Atlantic N of the N Bahamas and W of 77W. 
A large upper level anticyclonic circulation is centered over the
W Atlantic near 33N59W. Upper level diffluence E of the center is
enhancing convection near 29N50W. 

A surface ridge extends from a 1023 mb high pressure center near 
30N67W to N Florida. The tail end of a surface trough extends 
from 32N50W to 26N55W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90
nm of the trough. Another 1025 mb high is over the E Atlantic 
near 38N25W producing fair weather.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 
------------------------------------------------------------------
STORM INVEST 98L 
179 
ABNT20 KNHC 141725
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical low appears to be forming to the east of the larger
complex low pressure system centered several hundred miles south of
Cape Race, Newfoundland.  This new low could acquire some
subtropical characteristics by Wednesday.  However, after that time
the low should be moving northeastward over colder waters and be
absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila
-------------------------------------------------------------------

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 14, 2018... 0948 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center
692 
AXNT20 KNHC 141207
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
807 AM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A low pressure system centered near 37N47W is producing a large 
area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms east of the 
center. Environmental conditions may become conducive for some 
development by Wednesday. The system is forecast to move NE over 
colder waters Thursday and Friday. There is medium potential for 
this low to become a subtropical cyclone during the next 48 
hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W, from 08N to 20N,
moving west at 15 kt. Scattered rain showers are in the monsoon 
trough area from 07N to 10N between 26W and 32W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W from 08N to 21N, 
moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is in the 
monsoon trough area from 07N to 09N between 47W and 54W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W from 10N to 22N, 
moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is along
the coast of N Hispaniola from 18N to 21N between 67W and 70W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W from 10N to 22N, 
moving west at 15 kt. The wave is enhancing scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection along the monsoon trough south of 12N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12N15W 
to 09N20W to 10N40W. The ITCZ continues from 10N40W to 08N450W to
the coast of South America near 07N60W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N to 09N between 36W and 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation is over southern Mexico near
18N100W. Isolated showers are over the area. Upper level cyclonic
wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico south of 24N and west of 90W.
A broad upper level anticyclonic circulation centered near 28N94W
spans the rest of the area. Widely scattered moderate rain 
showers are over the NE Gulf from 26N to 31N between 82W and 87W.

On the surface a surface trough is over the NE Gulf from 31N85W to
26N88W. Another surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from
24N90W to 18N93W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough
axis. 

A nocturnal trough will develop during the evening hours in the 
Yucatan Peninsula, before pushing offshore into the SW Gulf each 
night. A surge of fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds will 
accompany this trough. The trough will become weaker by the middle
of the week, allowing the winds to diminish. A surface ridge will
support light to moderate E to SE winds across the remainder of 
the basin through Friday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation is along the coast of N Cuba  
near 23N78W. Upper level diffluence is over Hispaniola enhancing
convection. Another upper level cyclonic circulation is over the
NW Caribbean near 19N85W. Upper level diffluence is over Honduras
and Nicaragua enhancing convection.  

The monsoon trough is along 09N between 73W and 85W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is S of 12N between 74W and
83W, to include N Colombia and Panama. 

Surface high pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to 
strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through today. 
Winds along the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, 
have begun to subside, and continue during the middle of the week 
as western Atlantic Ocean high pressure slowly weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow from an upper level trough covers 
the Atlantic Ocean from Cuba and Hispaniola northward and west 
of 70W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rain showers are in 
the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow associated with a trough covers 
the Atlantic from 22N northward between 35W and 60W. Isolated 
moderate to locally strong rain showers cover the Atlantic Ocean 
north of 28N between 45W and 56W. A low pressure center and a 
trailing surface trough are north of the area along 50W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high pressure center near 
30N66W. The tail end of a surface trough extends from 32N50W to
27N53W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the
trough. Another 1023 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 36N29W
producing fair weather.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 
----------------------------------------------------------------