I will be away for the Labor Day weekend so I will not be doing full updates on the blog or on the website. Please use all the links here on blog or website for your tropical updates. If i get back on time Monday I will resume update then but if not regulate update will resume Tuesday Sept 4, 2018.
Have a safe and happy holiday weekend remember to stay up to date on the tropics. I will be checking from my cell phone and if I see any anomalies I will quickly get on line and post 3rd party maps for your info.
Ralph's Tropical Weather (RTW)
Friday, August 31, 2018
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 31, 2018... 1113 AM EDT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION BY NHC
812 AXNT20 KNHC 311207 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 807 AM EDT Fri Aug 31 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... The center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, at 31/0900 UTC, is near 13.6N 21.4W, or 190 nm ESE of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. The low center is moving WNW, or 285 degrees, at 10 knots. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. The government of the Cabo Verde Islands has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Santiago, Fogo and Brava. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 08N to 15N between 21W and 30W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 13N to 16N between 16W and 21W. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W from 14N southward, moving west at 15 kt. Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 180 nm of the tropical wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends from 21N68W, through E Hispaniola to N Colombia at 11N73W, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over E Hispaniola from 17N-19N between 68W-71W. Similar convection is over NW Venezuela from 08N- 11N between 70W-73W. A tropical wave is over S Mexico along 96W from 19N southward, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis over S Mexico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 14N17W, through the 1006 mb low pressure center that has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone, to 11N30W, and to 08N42W. The ITCZ continues from 08N42W to 07N53W. Widely scattered moderate convection is 05N-11N between 30W-40W. Scattered moderate convection is S of Trinidad from 08N-10N between 58W-62W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A small area of an upper level cyclonic circulation center is in SE Louisiana/the north central Gulf of Mexico. Clusters of scattered moderate convection is over the E Gulf of Mexico from 23N-30N between 80W-90W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in interior Mexico near 25N101W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 24N to 27N between 92W and 96W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are over the W Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters into the weekend and support gentle to moderate winds. A surface trough will develop each evening in the Yucatan Peninsula. It will move W and offshore into the SW Gulf of Mexico during the overnight hours. A surge of moderate to fresh NE to E winds will accompany this trough each night. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough is in the Windward Passage. Isolated moderate convection is S of Cuba. The eastern part of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is along 09N/10N from Costa Rica to Colombia.Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-12N between 80W-84W. Nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the south central Caribbean Sea during the next several nights. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. A tropical wave, currently over Hispaniola, will move through the western Caribbean Sea by late Sunday into early Monday, and the wave will be accompanied by active weather. A second tropical wave will pass to the west of 55W on Saturday, into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Saturday night, and into the central Caribbean Sea early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough extends from a 35N48W cyclonic circulation center, to a second cyclonic circulation center that is near 31N57W, to a third cyclonic circulation center that is near 26N61W, to 24N65W. A central Atlantic Ocean upper level trough is along 32N40W to 21N46W. An upper level trough is along 75W/76W, from SE Cuba/the Windward Passage to 33N, about 250 nm to the east of the SE U.S.A. Isolated moderate rainshowers are to the NW of the line that passes through 32N40W to 24N50W to 20N60W. Surface high pressure will remain centered SW to W of Bermuda through the forecast period. A tropical wave, moving across the E Caribbean Sea and the adjacent Atlantic Ocean, will produce active weather as it moves westward across the waters that are to the south of 25N and Bahamas through Monday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
------------------------------------------------------------------
OTHER THAN PTC SIX NEAR CABO VERDE ISLANDS AND A TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE, THE TROPICS REMAIN QUIET FOR NOW.
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE SIX AUG 31, 2018...1100 AM EDT
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX UPDATE BY NHC
175 WTNT31 KNHC 311437 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 31 2018 ...A TROPICAL STORM HAS NOT FORMED YET BUT STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 22.7W ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Verde Islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 22.7 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected to continue for the next three to four days. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move near or over the southern Cabo Verde Islands as a tropical storm later today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later today or Saturday. Environmental conditions are favorable for the system to become a tropical cyclone later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours... high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The system could produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the southern Cabo Verde Islands with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods. WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the southern Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday, August 30, 2018
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX UPDATE AUG 30, 2018... 0502 PM EDT
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX
308 WTNT31 KNHC 302031 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 PM AST Thu Aug 30 2018 ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.9N 19.4W ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Santiago * Fogo * Brava A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case, within the next 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 19.4 West. The system is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a general west to west-northwest track with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next 2 to 3 days. On the forecast track, the disturbance or the tropical cyclone is expected to move near or over the southern Cabo Verde Islands on Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm during the next day or so. Environmental conditions are favorable for the system to become a tropical cyclone tonight or Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The system could produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the southern Cabo Verde Islands. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods. WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the southern Cabo Verde Islands on Friday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
--------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 30, 2018... 0411 PM EDT
Tropical Weather Discussion by RTW
484 AXNT20 KNHC 301744 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 143 PM EDT Thu Aug 30 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is centered near 12.9N 18.4W at 30/1500 UTC or 370 nm ESE of The Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. The government of the Cabo Verde Islands has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the southern islands of Santiago, Fogo and Brava. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 08N-15N between 14W-27W. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 39W from 15N southward, moving west at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 07N-09N between 36W-43W. An E Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis from 20N70W to 07N71W, moving west at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over the NE Caribbean from 15N-22N between 60W-73W. A tropical wave extends its axis over the Bay of Campeche along 93W between 06N-21N, moving west at 20 kt. Isolated moderate convection prevails over southern Mexico S of 19N between 94W- 100W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 12N16W to 11N30W to 08N45W. The ITCZ continues from 08N45W to the coast of South America near 06N54W. Besides the convection mentioned with Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, and the tropical wave, isolated moderate convection is from 06N-09N between 44W- 55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level low is centered over NE Mexico near 25N100W. Another small upper level low is centered over the NE Gulf of Mexico near 30N86W. Patches of scattered moderate convection is over the N Gulf N of 23N. At the surface, a ridge extends along 30N producing 10-15 kt SE surface flow. A tropical wave is over the Bay of Campeche. See above. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean. Refer to the section above for details. An upper level low is centered S of Hispaniola near 17N73W. Upper level cyclonic flow covers the entire Caribbean. An area of diffluent flow is over the NW Caribbean S of Cuba. The eastern part of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is along 10N from 74W in Colombia beyond southern Costa Rica. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 07N-11N between 72W-83W. Fresh to strong winds will prevail in the south central Caribbean, before diminishing through Saturday. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A low amplitude tropical wave is moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. A 1022 mb high is centered W of Bermuda near 32N71W. A 1026 mb high is centered near the Azores at 36N24W. Moderate to fresh winds will be S of 24N, and gentle to moderate winds will be N of 24N. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong just north of Hispaniola, including the approach to the Windward Passage, during the evening and overnight hours through the weekend. A tropical wave over the east Caribbean and adjacent Atlantic waters will produce active weather as it moves westward across the Lesser Antilles and Bahamas through Monday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
------------------------------------------------------------------
Storm Investigation
296 ABNT20 KNHC 301748 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Aug 30 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, located southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A tropical wave located over the north-central Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms extending from Hispaniola northeastward across the northeastern Caribbean Sea and adjacent Atlantic waters. This activity is forecast to spread westward to west-northwestward, but strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent any significant development of this system during the next several days. Environmental conditions could become more conducive when the system reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. Regardless of development, this system could produce enhanced rainfall across portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos, and Florida into early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. && Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. $$ Forecaster Brennan
-----------------------------------------------------------------
As for the storm invest I would not be to bummed out about it. The
EURO has been gradually suggesting a weaker system if at all. As
for other models they don't suggest any development at all.
We still could see some rains and storms labor day as the
northern axis of this wave moves across the area. Regardless of
development or not we should be storm ready as we enter the busiest
time of the season...RTW
TROPICAL UPDATE AUG 30, 2018... 0113 PM EDT
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX
979 WTNT31 KNHC 301734 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 200 PM AST Thu Aug 30 2018 ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.9N 19.0W ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Santiago * Fogo * Brava A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 19.0 West. The system is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move near or over the southern Cabo Verde Islands on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm during the next day or so. Environmental conditions are favorable for the system to become a tropical cyclone tonight or Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The system could produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the southern Cabo Verde Islands. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods. WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the southern Cabo Verde Islands on Friday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
--------------------------------------------------------------------
ACCIDENT WHILE DOING UPDATE DELAYS MY BLOG POST AND WEBSITE PUBLISH
RTW
SPECIAL STATEMENT FROM NHC AUG 30, 2018
Special Message from NHC Issued 30 Aug 2018 14:08 UTC
NHC will initiate advisories at 11 am EDT on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, located east-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.
NHC will initiate advisories at 11 am EDT on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, located east-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Wednesday, August 29, 2018
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 29, 2018...0306 PM EDT
Tropical Weather Outlook by NHC
761 AXNT20 KNHC 291750 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 150 PM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W/32W from 15N southward. A 1013 mb low pressure center is along the wave near 09N. scattered moderate to widely scattered strong rainshowers are from 08N to 13N between Africa and 29W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 07N to 17N between Africa and 31W. An Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 21N58W 16N60W 13N62W 08N62W, ending in Venezuela. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers from 13N to 20N between 58W and Puerto Rico. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea to 23N in the Atlantic Ocean between 54W and 70W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W/87W from 22N in the Yucatan Channel, beyond Central America, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 18N northward from the Windward Passage westward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 16N17W, to 11N25W, to the 1013 mb low pressure center that is along the 31W/32W tropical wave, 08N38W. The ITCZ continues from 08N38W to 08N49W. widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 03N to 10N between 28W and 40W. isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N southward, mainly between 40W and 60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from central Louisiana, to the upper Texas Gulf coast, to inland south central Texas. Scattered moderate to isolated/widely scattered strong rainshowers are to the north of the line from 25N90W to 28N96W from 90W westward. The upper level inverted trough/cyclonic circulation center from 24 hours ago has moved into Mexico, and now it is along 100W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are to the west of the line that runs from 26N95W to 19N92W. Weak upper level cyclonic wind flow is in the eastern one-third of the Gulf of Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 25N northward from 90W eastward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 22N northward in the Gulf of Mexico. A weak ridge will dominate the Gulf waters into the weekend and support gentle to moderate winds. A surface trough will develop each evening over the Yucatan Peninsula before moving W and offshore into the SW Gulf overnight. A surge of moderate to fresh NE to E winds will accompany this trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level east-to-west oriented trough is along 15N/16N from 70W westward to Central America. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 14N northward from 70W westward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, from a trough, spans the Caribbean Sea between 60W and 70W. The trough extends from the Atlantic Ocean, across Puerto Rico to Venezuela. isolated moderate rainshowers cover the rest of that part of the Caribbean Sea that is between 60W and 70W. A tropical wave is in the easternmost part of the Caribbean Sea, with its associated precipitation. The eastern part of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is along 09N from 74W in Colombia beyond southern Costa Rica. An upper level trough extends from southern Nicaragua to Panama. scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 11N southward from 80W and 83W. Fresh to strong winds will prevail in the south central Caribbean Sea today, before diminishing from tonight through Saturday. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with an inverted trough, covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 70W westward. isolated moderate rainshowers are in the area of cyclonic wind flow. An upper level trough extends from a 32N40W cyclonic circulation center, to a second cyclonic circulation center that is near 28N46W, to a third 24N63W cyclonic circulation center, toward the Windward Passage. Isolated moderate rainshowers are to the NW of the line that passes through 32N38W to 25N47W to 23N60W to the Mona Passage. Surface high pressure will remain centered SW of Bermuda through the forecast period. Moderate to fresh winds will be S of 24N, and gentle to moderate winds will be N of 24N. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong just N of Hispaniola, including the approach to the Windward Passage, during the evening and overnight hours through Sunday. A tropical wave moving into the NE Caribbean Sea and the adjacent Atlantic Ocean today, will produce active weather as it moves westward across the Lesser Antilles and Bahamas through Monday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
----------------------------------------------------------------
Storm Investigation
011 ABNT20 KNHC 291743 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A vigorous low pressure area associated with a tropical wave is forecast to form between the coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands on Thursday. Conditions appears to be favorable for development, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while the system moves west-northwestward near the Cabo Verde Islands and the adjacent Atlantic. This system is expected to bring rains and gusty winds to those islands in two or three days, and interests in that region should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Avila
-----------------------------------------------------------------
African wave has a higher chance for tropical formation but should
stay out over the North Atlantic waters. The system that is forecast
to develop over the Bahamas not very many models other the than the
ECMWF is suggesting development and a track across Florida. I will
continue to monitor but development is still questionable.
Are you Hurricane Ready? RTW
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 29, 2018... 1033 AM EDT
Tropical Weather Discussion by NHC
687 AXNT20 KNHC 291205 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the east Atlantic with axis along 32W between 03N-14N, moving west at 10-15 kt. A 1012 mb low is embedded on the wave axis near 08N32W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-10N between 29W-36W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends it axis from 20N57W to 07N61W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is over the northern portion of the wave from 13N-20N between 54W-64W, over the Leeward Islands. A tropical wave is moving across the west Caribbean with axis along 86W between 03N-21N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is over the NW Caribbean and Central America. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 15N17W to 09N26W to a 1012 mb low near 08N32W to 08N39W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 06N45W to 08N51W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is alongthe coast of W Africa from 08N-14N. Isolated moderate convection is from 06N-10N between 42W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level low is in the NE corner of Mexico near 26N100W. Cyclonic flow covers Texas and N Mexico and the W Gulf of Mexico N of 20N and W of 94W. Isolated moderate convection is over the area. Another small upper level low is centered over the NE Gulf near 30N88W. Scattered showers are over the E Gulf, Florida, and W Cuba. At the surface, a ridge prevails across the basin along 30N with 10 kt SE return flow. A surface trough will develop each night over the Yucatan Peninsula, then push offshore into the Bay of Campeche with convection. A surge of moderate to fresh NE to E winds will accompany this trough. A surface ridge will continue to dominate the reminder of the Gulf waters, supporting gentle to moderate winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the west Caribbean, and another tropical wave has entered the E Caribbean. Refer to the section above for details. An upper level low is centered over Jamaica near 18N77W. This feature is producing isolated moderate convection over Jamaica and E Cuba. Elsewhere, scattered moderate to strong convection is over the SW Caribbean S of 10N to include N Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica. Fresh to strong winds will develop each night in the south central Caribbean Sea just north of Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A tropical wave with an embedded low is moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. An upper-level low is centered over the central Atlantic near 26N60W. Scattered showers are within 300 nm of the center. On the surface, a trough is over the W Atlantic from 30N80W to 25N80W. Scattered showers are noted within 120 nm of the trough. A 1022 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 29N67W. To the east, another 1025 mb high is centered near 37N22W. Surface ridging will prevail through the forecast period. Expect moderate to fresh winds S of 24N, and gentle to moderate winds N of 24N. The wind speeds will pulse to fresh to strong just N of Hispaniola at night through the weekend. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Storm Investigation
107 ABNT20 KNHC 291129 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A low pressure area is forecast to form between the coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands in association with a tropical wave that is expected to move off the west coast of Africa late Thursday or early Friday. Additional development is anticipated, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while the system moves west-northwestward near the Cabo Verde Islands. Interests in those islands should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Avila
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Still monitoring the African coast for waves with potential for
development. Also off east of Florida since the EURO model still
suggesting development over the Bahamas...RTW
Tuesday, August 28, 2018
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 28, 2018... 0357 PM EDT
Tropical Weather Discussion by NHC
194 AXNT20 KNHC 281655 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1255 PM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W/20W from 20N southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 05N to 19N between Africa and 23W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W/27W from 20N southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 07N to 12N between 26W and 30W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 04N to 13N between 20W and 30W. Rainshowers are possible in the remainder of the area from 19N southward from 44W eastward. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W/53W from 20N southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 10N to 20N between 43W and 60W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W/69W from 21N southward, through the Mona Passage/eastern sections of the Dominican Republic to Venezuela. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N to 27N between 60W and 70W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 16N to 26N between 60W and 70W. A tropical wave is along 88W/89W from 22N southward, from the Yucatan Peninsula through Belize, Guatemala, and El Salvador, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 90 nm on either side of the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 14N17W, to 10N24W, 08N32W, and 09N41W. The ITCZ is not discernible. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are cover the area from 04N to 13N between 20W and 30W. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the rest of the area from 19N southward from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level inverted trough is in the N central part of the Gulf of Mexico. Cyclonic wind flow covers the NE corner of the area. isolated moderate rainshowers are from 90W eastward. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the NE corner of Mexico. Cyclonic wind flow covers Texas and Mexico and the coastal waters from 20N northward from 92W westward. isolated moderate rainshowers cover the Gulf waters from 90W westward. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 28/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 1.21 in Veracruz in Mexico. A surface trough will develop each evening in the Yucatan Peninsula, before pushing offshore into the SW Gulf of Mexico. A surge of moderate to fresh NE to E winds will accompany this trough. A surface ridge will dominate the rest of the Gulf waters, supporting gentle to moderate winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is about 150 nm to the south of Cuba, in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 16N northward from 70W westward. The eastern part of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is along 09N from 74W in Colombia beyond southern Costa Rica. An upper level trough extends from southern Nicaragua to Panama. scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 12N southward from 81W westward to land. Fresh to strong winds will prevail in the south central Caribbean Sea through Wednesday before diminishing. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with an inverted trough, covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 70W westward. isolated moderate rainshowers are in the area of cyclonic wind flow. An upper level trough extends from a 33N32W cyclonic circulation center, to a second cyclonic circulation center that is near 28N44W. The trough continues to a third upper level cyclonic circulation center that is near 23N63W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are to the NW of the line that passes through 32N30W to 24N50W to 18N61W. Surface high pressure will prevail through the forecast period. Expect moderate to fresh winds S of 24N, and gentle to moderate winds N of 24N. The wind speeds will pulse to fresh to strong just N of Hispaniola at night through Saturday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
---------------------------------------------------------------
Storm Investigation
742 ABNT20 KNHC 281718 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on Thursday. Some development of this system is possible over the weekend while it moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Avila
----------------------------------------------------------------
Monitoring the coast of Africa, the Central Atlantic and the
Bahamas over the weekend for tropical cyclone formation...RTW
https://ralphstropicalweather.com/
HEADS UP!
IF YOU HAVE A TOOL USE IT!
When going to http://ralphstropicalweather.com
website just don't look at the tropical weather outlook map! Scroll
down to other satellite map where I post investigations formation
probabilities.
You may miss out on an important investigation that could be of interest to you in the near future.
If you see at top (updated) above one of the buttons, that means I have posted new graphic map at (Ralph's Storm Track Maps).
Remember I do this to be your eyes. What's the purpose of having a tool at your disposition and not use it.
You may miss out on an important investigation that could be of interest to you in the near future.
If you see at top (updated) above one of the buttons, that means I have posted new graphic map at (Ralph's Storm Track Maps).
Remember I do this to be your eyes. What's the purpose of having a tool at your disposition and not use it.
Don't be caught by surprise we are entering the busiest time of the
season and all it takes is one storm to turn your life up side down. Be
Hurricane Ready!! RTW
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)