WEATHER UPDATE OCT 6, 2018... 0504 PM EDT

Tropical disturbance Invest 91L slowly becoming better organized.  NHC has now upgraded this system to Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen.

Watch and warnings issued for a portion the Yucatan and Western Cuba.

Interest in Key West, Louisiana to the Florida Big Bend should closely monitor the progress of this developing system...RTW

TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 6, 2018... 0210 PM EDT

• LESLIE TRACK EASTWARD ONLY A THREAT TO SHIPPING.

• STORM INVEST 91L STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL SHEAR.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT, 80% WITHIN 48 HRS. AND 90% WITHIN 5-DAYS.  AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.  INTEREST IN THE YUCATAN, WESTERN CUBA, FLORIDA KEYS, LOUISIANA THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

• STORM INVEST 97E IN THE EAST PACIFIC SOME OF THE MODELS HINT THAT THIS LOW WILL CROSS OVER INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND COULD HEAD INTO THE GULF AS WELL.  ITS NOW MOVED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA SO THE CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT ARE NOW 0%.  I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT INTO NEXT WEEK.

RTW

 LESLIE

 INVEST 91L

 INVEST 97E

STORM INVESTIGATION 97E OCT 5, 2018

The Caribbean needs to monitor Storm Invest 97E which models hint that this low will cross over from the East Pacific into the Caribbean.  That would be after Invest 91L or Michael tracks north across northeast Gulf coast.  This system could follow a similar path.  However,  its Still to early to tell, but Euro model shows this system in the Northwest Caribbean...RTW

WEATHER UPDATE INVEST 91L OCT 5, 2018...0339 PM EDT

STORM INVESTIGATION 91L
Disturbance in the Caribbean probabilities are now Medium chance 40% within 48 hours and a High chance 70% within 5 days.

Latest satellite shows less organization than earlier, lack of colder cloud tops. This is mainly due to the proximity to land and a West-Southwest wind shear over the disturbance.

As this disturbance begins to track away from the land area and moves over northwest Caribbean waters some organization could begin.  As it moves over the southern Gulf waters the sea surface temps are warmer and wind shear will be less.

Depending on the track and evolution of this system, will determine how much of the weather associated with this system will affect the Florida Keys.

Interest in the Yucatan, Western Cuba, Florida Keys, Louisiana to the Florida Big Bend should closely monitor the progress of Storm Invest 91L over the weekend and coming week...RTW

TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 5, 2018... 1111 AM EDT

Leslie still stuck in a blocked environment.  Leslie swells will now be reaching as far as the Eastern seaboard. 

Caribbean disturbance gradually becoming better organized and could become a depression or tropical storm this weekend or early next week.

Model tracks flip flopping,  now a track northward.  These tracks will continue doing this so they remain questionable.

High pressure in the Atlantic over a portion of Florida helps to slowly steer this system around the peripheral of he high pressure ridge.  Leslie in the Atlantic sandwiched between high pressure is not allowing Bermuda high to move much Eastward so this keeps a buffer over a portion of Florida. 

However, on a track like models suggest at this time, the cyclone would make landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.  That seems to have been the tracks for Gulf storms this season. 

I say anyone who lives from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle should continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance...RTW

TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 4, 2018...1239 PM EDT

Leslie a tad weaker and continues producing rough surf for the Bermuda Island.

Caribbean disturbance drifting northwestward. 

Models continue trending to the west of previous model run, an indication that high pressure over southeast will block a northward track or a northeast track for now. 

As high pressure moves east toward the Atlantic then this a tropical storm or hurricane will begin to turn north and eventually northeastward around the peripheral of the high pressure ridge. 

This is as I see it right now.  I caution you though!  This is not an official forecast just my observation.

Always monitor National Hurricane Center forecast...RTW

TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 3, 2018... 0404 PM EDT

Leslie tracking over the north Central Atlantic.  Bermuda is feeling swells from the tropical Cyclone.

Broad are of low pressure located in the South Caribbean is still being monitored for tropical cyclone formation.

Last three model run has been trending to a weaker system and more toward the west-northwest.  There were a few that took it north. It's hard to tell if these run are valid because we don't have an actual center of circulation so these model run are all questionable for now.

I do believe if any of these model run to the west were to be valid, it could be due to high pressure in the Atlantic building west over Florida.  If that were the case, then we could see a Mexico or even Texas landfall.  However, like I said before these model run are questionable for now...RTW