..TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AND DAY 1 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK JUNE 15, 2023..

 

The EURO ensemble model continues to show tropical cyclone development from a wave about to emerge off the African coast.  Sea surface temps are nice a warm for tropical cyclone formation.  The National Hurricane Center now has a storm investigation along the African coast and into the central Atlantic for the same strong tropical wave that could possibly develop.

The GFS ensemble model also hints that something could develop over the Atlantic into next week.  GFS also shows possible development in the Caribbean as a low tracks north.  That is still questionable as other models do not suggest at any development to our south at this time.

I continue to monitor these areas for development. 

RTW 

Euro ensemble shows low passing north of the 

Leeward Islands and another moving into the Caribbean.

Canadian ensemble model hints at low pressure passing over the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico, one tracking into the Caribbean and the other low tracking north out of the southern Caribbean similar to the GFS model.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa 
later today and early Friday.  Environmental conditions are expected 
to be conducive for gradual development of this system while it 
moves generally westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph 
across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic during the early to 
middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Bucci

000
AXNT20 KNHC 151031
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Jun 15 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis near 26W from 
12N southward, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 22W and 27W. 

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis near 44W from 
11N southward, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are
noted along 06N.

A western Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis near 61W from 
05N-13N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are 
present S of 09N. 

A Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis near 81W from 14N 
southward across Panama into the East Pacific, moving west at 
10 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails S of 14N between
79W and 83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N17W to 06N29W. The ITCZ 
continues westward from 06N29W to 05N42W, then resumes from 
06N45W to 07N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N
to 09N between 44W and 58W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
numerous showers and thunderstorms over northern Colombia, Panama,
and Nicaragua.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An outflow boundary is causing scattered showers and thunderstorms
over the NE Gulf waters mainly N of 27N and E of 84W. Elsewhere, 
a broad surface ridge stretching westward from central Florida to 
the west-central Gulf continues to dominate the region. Fresh to 
strong SE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are found at the south- 
central Gulf, north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate southerly 
winds and 1 to 3 ft seas dominate the southeastern Gulf, including
the Florida Straits. Moderate to fresh ESE to S winds and seas at
3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge across 
the Gulf waters and low pressure over NE Mexico will continue to 
support moderate to fresh SE winds across the W Gulf through Thu. 
Fresh to strong SE winds north of the Yucatan Peninsula will 
weaken by Thu morning, then fresh winds will pulse each night 
through the forecast period. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds 
will prevail. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will 
continue to produce hazy skies over the SW Gulf for the next few
days.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves 
affecting the basin.

An upper-level trough over the northwestern portion of the basin 
continues to induce scattered showers over eastern Cuba and 
western Hispaniola, and nearby Caribbean waters. 

A broad Atlantic ridge associated with a 1022 mb high pressure 
centered near 27N58W continues to support a trade-wind regime 
across the basin, except for monsoonal winds near Panama and Costa
Rica. Latest scatterometer and altimeter data reveal strong to 
near-gale easterly winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft at the south- 
central basin, just north of Colombia. Fresh to strong ESE winds 
and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted at the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to 
moderate ESE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail south of Cuba 
and the Windward Passage. Gentle monsoonal winds with 3 to 5 ft 
seas in trade-wind swell are found offshore Panama and Costa Rica.
Fresh E to ESE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere in 
the basin.

For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between the Bermuda
High and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong E trades 
across most of the central Caribbean through Mon. Near gale-force 
winds are expected to pulse at nighttime in the Gulf of Venezuela 
and near the coast of Colombia through Fri night, then fresh to 
strong winds will pulse each night through the weekend. Fresh to 
strong E winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at 
night, through Sun night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves 
affecting the basin.

An outflow boundary is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms
over the western Atlantic mainly W of 75W. An upper-level trough 
over the western Atlantic continues to spark scattered showers 
from the southeast Bahamas northward between 63W-72W. A 1022 mb
high is centered near 27N58W. To the east, a surface trough
extends from 30N28W to 22N41W.

Fresh to strong southerly winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are 
impacting waters east of Florida N of 27N between 65W and the 
Georgia-Florida coast. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 5 to 6
ft seas are noted from 19N to 25N between 52W and the southeast 
Bahamas/Greater Antilles. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6
ft in mixed northerly/southerly swells N of 19N/20N between 20W 
and the northwest/central Bahamas. Near the Canary Islands, 
moderate to fresh NNE trades and 6 to 8 ft seas dominate north of 
20N between the northwest Africa coast and 20W. Farther south, 
gentle to moderate N to NNE trades and seas at 3 to 5 ft are 
evident from 08N to 20N between the central Africa coast and 35W. 
To the west, moderate to fresh NE to E trades with 5 to 7 ft seas 
are seen from 06N to 19N/20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles. 
Light to gentle southerly and monsoonal winds and 4 to 6 ft seas 
in southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic 
Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the Bermuda High will continue
supporting gentle to moderate winds during the next several days 
south of 29N. North of 30N and west of 70W, fresh to strong SW 
winds are expected through Fri night.

$$
ERA

DAY 1 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK (MODERATE) RISK!

VISIT STORM PREDICITION CENTER FOR LATEST UPDATES

MODERATE RISK: Oklahoma City, OK...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...Edmond, OK...

ENHANCED RISK: Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...

SLIGHT RISK: Jacksonville, FL...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Shreveport, LA...Mobile, AL...

MARGINAL RISK: Detroit, MI...Columbus, OH...Austin, TX...New Orleans, LA...Cleveland, OH...

..TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AND SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK FOR JUNE 14, 2023..

 

I am beginning to see signals from the EURO models hinting that one of the waves tracking across the Atlantic could briefly get stronger as it tracks north of the Leeward Islands.  After the so called weather system moves away from the northern Leeward Island chain, It will more than likely run into hostile upper level winds weakening this system.  However, I caution you, this is a only a forecast and it is subject to change so take this as a grain of salt.

The GFS continues to show a spin off from the central American GYRE one that will track west and possibly produce gusty winds and heavy rains for Nicaragua and Honduras and maybe the Southern Yucatan.  The next spin off will also come from the southern Caribbean and track north and east across western Cuba and Florida as a weak depression or tropical storm.  Once again I caution you this is only a forecast and it is always subject to change.  

RTW

Satellite Animation with an overlay of the EURO model tracks.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci
NNNN

000
AXNT20 KNHC 141012
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Jun 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis near 23W from 
12N southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers
are noted in the vicinity of the wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis near 38W from 
11N southward, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers
are noted in the vicinity of the wave.

A western Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis near 56W from 
13N southward, and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is present from 07N to 11N between 52W and 59W. 

A Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis near 72W from 13N 
southward into northwestern Venezuela and eastern Colombia, and 
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms are occurring over western Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N17W to 06N27W. The 
ITCZ continues westward from 06N27W to 03N37W, then from 04N40W 
to 04N50W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves
described above, scattered showers are noted within 200 nm N of
the ITCZ boundaries.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering 
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the southwestern Caribbean 
waters near Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge stretching westward from central Florida to
the west-central Gulf continues to dominate the region. Moderate 
with fresh E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail over the 
western and south-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds 
and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge across 
the Gulf waters and low pressure over Texas and NE Mexico will 
support moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas across the 
western Gulf through Thu. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are also
expected near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula mainly at 
night through the forecast period. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate 
winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail. Smoke from 
agricultural fires in Mexico will continue to produce hazy skies 
over the SW Gulf through at least mid-week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across the basin.

A broad Atlantic ridge associated with a 1022 mb high centered near
27N57W continues to support a trade-wind regime across the entire
basin, except monsoonal winds near Panama. Fresh to strong ENE to
E winds and seas at 7 to 9 ft are evident at the south-central 
basin just north of Colombia, and the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to 
moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas persist between Cuba and
Jamaica, and south of the Windward Passage. Gentle monsoonal 
winds and seas at 2 to 5 ft in easterly swell are noted near Costa
Rica and Panama. Moderate to fresh ENE to ESE winds and seas of 4
to 7 ft prevail elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high
pressure and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong
winds and moderate to rough seas across most of the central
Caribbean through the week. Pulsing fresh to strong winds are 
expected in the Gulf of Honduras mainly at night through the 
week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving
across the basin.

An Atlantic ridge extends westward from a 1022 mb high centered near
27N57W to southern Florida. To the east, a cold front extends 
southwestward from the eastern Azores across 31N28W to 25N38W. A
surface trough continues from that point to 24N46W. No significant
convection is related to the front/trough at this time.

Moderate to fresh ESE to SW winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are noted
north of 27N between 65W and the Georgia-Florida coast, and from 
19N to 26N between 52W and the Greater Antilles. Otherwise, light
to gentle winds with 3 to 4 ft seas exist north of 19N between 
21W and the Bahamas. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh 
with strong NNE trades and seas of 4 to 7 ft are noted north of 
27N between the northwest Africa coast and 20W. Farther south, 
gentle to moderate with fresh N to NE trades and 4 to 6 ft seas 
are noted from 14N to 26N between the central Africa coast and 
21W. Across the tropical Atlantic north of 08N, gentle to moderate
NNE to NE trades are between 21W and 40W and moderate to fresh 
ENE to ESE trades are between 40W and the Lesser Antilles. Seas in
these areas are from 3 to 5 ft and 5 to 7 ft respectively. Light 
to gentle southerly and monsoonal winds and 3 to 6 ft seas in 
southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, little change of the weather pattern 
is expected this week. A cold front is forecast to clip the NW 
waters on Thu. As a result, expect fresh to strong S to SW winds 
and seas to 8 ft over the N waters, mainly N of 29N and W of 70W.

$$
ERA

A DANGEROUS DAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST TODAY MODERATE RISK FOR SEVRE STORMS.  CHECK STORM PREDICITION CENTER FOR TORNADO, DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL PROBABILITIES WHICH SOME HAVE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT!

MODERATE RISK: Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Jackson, MS...Tuscaloosa, AL...Albany, GA...

ENHANCED RISK: Birmingham, AL...Shreveport, LA...Mobile, AL...Savannah, GA...Macon, GA...

SLIGHT RISK: Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...Atlanta, GA...Arlington, TX...

MARGINAL RISK: New York, NY...Jacksonville, FL...Newark, NJ...Jersey City, NJ...Yonkers, NY...

..TROPICAL OUTLOOK AND DAY 1 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK JUNE 13, 2023..

 

THE TROPICS REMAIN QUIET FOR NOW.  EURO ENSEMBLE MODEL SHOWS POSSIBLE TROPICAL ACTIVITY IN JUNE COMING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

FOR NOW ITS JUST MONITOR AND MAKE SURE YOU HAVE ALL YOUR SUPPLIES IN ORDER AND YOU HAVE A PLAN OF ACTION IN CASE A STORM TRACKS YOUR WAY.

RTW

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

862 
AXNT20 KNHC 131013
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Jun 13 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 17W from the Guinea- 
Bissau coast southward, and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 12W-19W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 42W from 12N southward, 
and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
present from 04N to 08N between 40W and 43W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is mostly inland along 65W and S of 13N,
and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted
with this wave at this time.

Another Caribbean tropical wave is near 82W from 13N southward 
through Panama into the East Pacific, and moving west at 10 to 15 
kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave at this 
time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 15N18W to 07N26W. The 
ITCZ continues westward from 07N26W to 06N39W, then continues W of
a tropical wave near 04N43W to 06N55W. Scattered moderate 
convection is evident from 05N-09N between 31W-40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Convergent SE winds east of a surface trough over the Yucatan 
Peninsula and Bay of Campeche are triggering scattered showers  
near the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, a broad surface ridge 
continues to dominate much of the Gulf. Moderate to fresh E to SE
winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are noted at the northwestern and 
southwestern Gulf. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 1 to 3 
ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh SE winds will prevail across 
the western Gulf today. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. 
As a frontal boundary sinks farther south over Texas by mid-week, 
winds will gradually increase to fresh and expand to the central 
Gulf through early Thu. Meanwhile, winds will become moderate to 
fresh in the eastern Gulf by tonight into Wed. Smoke from 
agricultural fires in Mexico will continue to produce hazy skies 
over the SW Gulf through at least mid-week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Atlantic ridge to the north near 26N is supporting a trade- 
wind pattern across much of the Caribbean Sea. Convergent trades 
are triggering isolated thunderstorms near western Cuba. Refer to 
the Tropical Waves section for additional weather in the basin. 
Fresh to strong ENE trades and seas of 7 to 9 ft exist at the 
south-central basin just north of Colombia. Moderate to fresh ENE 
to ESE trades with 5 to 7 ft seas are found at the north-central 
basin and Gulf of Honduras. Mainly moderate E to SE trades and 
seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
over the central Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in 
northern Colombia low will tighten this week. This will result in 
fresh to strong trade winds expanding across the central Caribbean
through the forecast period. Meanwhile, winds will pulse to fresh
in the Gulf of Honduras during the afternoon and evening hours 
through the week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Atlantic ridge reaches westward from a 1021 mb high near 
26N58W across the western Atlantic to southern Florida. A weak  
cold front stretches southwestward from the Azores across 31N34W 
to 26N50W, then continues northwestward as a stationary front to 
31N60W. Refer to the Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for
additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh SW winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are present north 
of 27N between 70W and the Georgia-northeast Florida coast.
Similar conditions with E to SE winds are also found farther
southeast from 19N to 24N between 50W and the Greater Antilles. 
Otherwise, light to gentle winds with 2 to 4 ft seas exist north 
of 20N between the Africa coast and Bahamas. Near the Cabo Verde 
Islands, moderate to fresh NNE trades and seas at 5 to 7 ft 
dominate from 13N to 20N between the central Africa coast and 30W.
Farther west, gentle to moderate with fresh NE to E trades and 4 
to 6 ft seas are noted from 05N to 19N/20N between 30W and the 
Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate southerly and monsoonal 
westerly winds with seas at 3 to 5 ft in southerly swell prevail 
for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail from the central 
Atlantic westward to the central Bahamas through today. The 
associated gradient will maintain gentle to moderate SE to S winds
across the western Atlantic today. A cold front will become 
stationary over the southeastern U.S. through mid-week. Ahead of 
it, SW moderate to fresh winds will develop beginning on Thu 
across the waters N of 27N. Another cold front will move into the 
southeastern U.S. late Sat night preceded by moderate to fresh SW 
winds. Winds will pulse to fresh north of Hispaniola this 
afternoon and evening.

$$
ERA

ENSEMBLE MODELS

DAY 1 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK

STORM PREDICITION CENTER

..TROPICAL OUTLOOK AND DAY 1 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK..

 

Showers and storms, some strong, off the African coast, are mainly monsoon trough showers and storms in this area.

A westward tracking tropical wave between 35 degrees west latitude has scattered showers and storms along the waves southern axis. This activity is south of the 5 degree north longitude line.

Another wave which is located between 60 west latitude and 50 west latitude has some scattered showers and storms ahead of the southern waves axis south of the 5 north longitude line.   This showers and storms are nearing the northeast coast of Venezuela and the lower windward islands.

Another wave along 76–75 west has some showers along the southern waves axis.  A 1009 mb low pressure system is east of the waves' northern axis. to the south is the monsoon storm track that tends to enhance showers and storms in this region.

These waves are not showing any signs of organization at this time.

Showers and storms over the Florida straits, Western Cuba, and the Bahamas are due to a monsoon trough in this region and a tropical wave to the south.  All this is enhancing rain and storms over southern Florida, Cuba and the Bahamas. Some storms could be strong at times. Water spouts can't be ruled out off shore Gulf and Atlantic waters today.

Elsewhere in the tropics, all remains quiet.

RTW

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
NNNN

024 
AXNT20 KNHC 121040
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Jun 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1020 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 36W from 11N southward, 
and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
seen from 04N to 09N between 34W and 37W.

A western Atlantic tropical wave is near 57W from 13N southward
into Suriname, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is present from 06N to 12N between 55W and
Trinidad/Tobago.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 75W from 13N southward into 
Colombia, and moving west around 10 kt. No significant convection
is noted with this wave at this time. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the Senegal
coast near 16N17W and extends southwestward to 07N27NW. The ITCZ
continues from 07N27W to 06N35W, then W of a tropical wave near
06N37W to 06N55W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection
is flaring up along the African coast from Guinea-Bissau southward
to Liberia, from 04N to 13N and E of 28W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along the ITCZ from 03N to 10N between 34W and
62W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is 
producing isolated thunderstorms at the southwestern Caribbean 
Sea.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends into the south-central Gulf with no
significant convection at this time. Otherwise, a broad but 
modest 1011 mb high at the north- central Gulf continues to 
dominate the region. Gentle southerly winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft 
exist at the north- central and eastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate 
with locally fresh ENE to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for 
the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, as a frontal boundary sinks farther south over 
Texas by midweek, winds will gradually increase to fresh and 
expand to the central Gulf Tue through early Thu. Meanwhile, winds
will become moderate to locally fresh in the eastern Gulf by Tue 
night into Wed. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will 
produce hazy skies across the SW Gulf through early this morning. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad surface ridge extends westward from a 1021 mb high at the
central Atlantic to the northwestern basin. Convergent
southeasterly winds south of the ridge axis are triggering 
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over western Cuba and
nearby Caribbean waters. Fresh with locally strong ENE trades and
seas of 7 to 9 ft are evident at the south-central basin north of
Colombia. Moderate with locally fresh ENE to SE trades and 4 to 6 
ft seas are noted across the north-central and eastern basin, and
at the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 
seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, pressure gradient between high pressure over 
the central Atlantic and the Colombia low will tighten this week. 
This will result in fresh to strong trade winds significantly 
expanding in areal coverage across the central Caribbean through 
the week. Meanwhile, winds will pulse to strong in the Gulf of 
Honduras during the afternoon and evening hours Mon through Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Convergent southerly winds continue to couple with modest
divergent winds aloft to generate scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms from the central Bahamas northeastward to near
30N73W. A stationary front south of Bermuda is producing isolated 
showers north of 28N between 60W and 70W. Refer to the Monsoon 
Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in 
the Atlantic Basin. 

Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and seas of 2 to 5 ft are present
west of 70W from the Bahamas northward to beyond 31N. Otherwise, 
a broad Atlantic Ridge related to a 1021 mb high near 26N56W is 
supporting light to gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas north of 23N 
between the Africa coast and Florida-Georgia coast. To the south,
moderate to fresh NNE to ENE trades and seas of 4 to 7 ft are 
present from 13N to 23N between the central Africa coast and 30W, 
and also from 07N to 23N between 30W and the southern Bahamas. 
Light to gentle southeasterly and monsoonal winds with 5 to 7 ft 
seas in southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic 
Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic Ridge will maintain 
gentle to moderate winds across the western Atlantic today. As a 
cold front approaches the U.S. East Coast, S to SW moderate to 
fresh winds will develop tonight through Fri across the waters N 
of 27N. Active weather affecting portions of the western Atlantic,
including the Bahamas, is expected to diminish significantly by 
tonight. Winds will pulse to strong north of Hispaniola this 
afternoon and evening as well as Tue afternoon and evening. 

$$ 
AReinhart

Ensemble Models

Day 1 Severe Storm Outlook

Enhanced Risk: Waco, TX...Cleburne, TX...Brownwood, TX...Stephenville, TX...Gatesville, TX...

Slight Risk: Philadelphia, PA...Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Virginia Beach, VA...Arlington, TX...

Marginal Risk: New York, NY...Jacksonville, FL...Austin, TX...Baltimore, MD...Denver, CO...

..TROPICAL OUTLOOK JUNE 10. 2023..

 

A persistent upper level trough across eastern Cuba and the Bahamas seems to be lessening over eastern Cuba.  latest satellite shows that most of the heavy storms are north-northeast of the central Bahamas.
 
there ate a total of 4 waves, 2 in the Atlantic, 1 over south America and one over central America entering the east pacific.  At this time none of these are showing sign of organization but the one over central America is is firing up lightning and storms over Nicaragua and and Honduras.

I am monitoring the northwest Caribbean as the persistent GFS model continues to show development.  I know this model tends to develop these bogus storms during the beginning of the season but i will monitor for now.

None of the other models are hinting at development, so more than likely this may be another GFS blooper.  However, in the past season we have seen other models jump on board the GFS model train and begin to show development.  So for now its nothing to be concerned about just be storm ready and monitor the tropics daily.

El Niño continues to strengthen, but remember to be storm ready as all it takes its one storm.
 

RTW