..TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE AUG 1, 2024.. ..FLORIDA STAY ALERT AND READY!..

 

This vigorous tropical wave, now named INVEST 97L, has a 20% formation chance within 48 hours and a 60% chance for formation within 7 days. 97L continues on a westward path that the GFS American model has been forecasting all along. The once said outlier model seems to be right on so far, so this makes it some what of a problem for the west coast of Florida if some of these forecasts hold true. 

The hurricane center SHIP intensity model shows a cat 2 off the Ft. Myers Naples area, and in fact other intensity models are also hinting at the same. So the entire state of Florida, especially along the west coast, should closely monitor and be ready to prepare if this system does strengthen.

The Gulf waters are nice and warm, and conditions will be favorable for tropical cyclone formation. I am not trying to alarm you; I just want those who live in Florida to be on alert. Fuel up and have your Hurricane game plan ready just in case.

EURO so far does not show development in the GULF, but since it was off with the forecast, I will go with what other models are suggesting for now. It's better to be ready than caught by surprise.

Stay informed with the National Hurricane Center updates.

 

RTW 

000
ABNT20 KNHC 011135
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Atlantic and Eastern Gulf of Mexico:
A well-defined tropical wave is producing a large area of 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, Puerto 
Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the adjacent waters of the 
southwestern Atlantic and northeastern Caribbean Sea. Development of 
this system should be slow to occur during the next couple of days 
while it moves west-northwestward over portions of the Greater 
Antilles. However, environmental conditions are forecast to be more 
conducive for development after the wave passes the Greater 
Antilles, and a tropical depression could form this weekend or early 
next week over the eastern Gulf of Mexico or near the Florida 
Peninsula. Interests across the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and 
Florida should continue to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

--------------------------------------------------------------------

447 
ACCA62 KNHC 011136
TWOSAT

Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones del Tiempo en el Trópico
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL
800 AM EDT jueves 1 de agosto de 2024

Para el Atlántico Norte...Mar Caribe y el Golfo de México:

Suroeste del Atlántico y Este del Golfo de México: Una onda tropical
bien definida está produciendo una gran área de aguaceros y
tormentas eléctricas desorganizadas sobre La Española, Puerto Rico,
las Islas Vírgenes y las aguas adyacentes del Atlántico suroeste y
el noreste del Mar Caribe. El desarrollo de este sistema debe ser
lento durante los próximos dos días mientras se mueve hacia el
oeste-noroeste sobre porciones de las Grandes Antillas. Sin embargo,
se pronostica que las condiciones ambientales serán más propicias
para el desarrollo después de que la ola pase por las Grandes
Antillas, y podría formarse una depresión tropical este fin de
semana o a principios de la próxima semana sobre el Golfo de México
o cerca de la Península de Florida. Los intereses a través de las
Grandes Antillas, las Bahamas y Florida deben continuar monitoreando
el progreso de este sistema.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 48 horas...baja...20 por ciento.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 7 días...medio...60 por ciento.

$$
Pronosticador Beven

*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un
programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El
Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión
del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es
siempre la versión autorizada. ***
National Hurricane Center SHIP model hinting at at a Cat 2 of the Florida West coast.
REMEMBER THIS IS ONLY A FORECAST AND ALWAYS SUBJECT TO CHANGE!


OTHER INTNSITY MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING AT A CAT 1 OR 2 HURRICANE

EURO ENSEMBLE MODELS

AMERICAN ENSEMBLE MODELS

CANADIAN MODEL

AMERICAN MODEL

GERMAN MODEL

UPPER-LEVEL WIND CONDITIONS

DAYS 3-5 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK

SEVEN DAY RAINFALL ACCUMULATION

..TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE JULY 31, 2024..

 

A tropical disturbance approaching Puerto Rico is beginning to develop more storms north of Puerto Rico. This system is gradually replacing dry air with ample moisture for some slow development into a depression as it tracks to the west or west-northwest. So far, none of the models are suggesting a tropical storm or hurricane as it approaches the Bahamas and southeast Florida. 

EURO and some of the others suggest development either in the northern Gulf or off shore in the Carolinas as it curves out toward the northeast. Remember that a weaker system will track further west, as some models have been hinting this system would do. Even the Euro ensemble model shows possible development off the southwest Florida coast, and that is reflected in this morning's National Hurricane Center 7-day Medium 60% formation probability shaded orange area.

If this system begins to develop south of the Bahamas and becomes a depression, it will bring some rains and storms with gusty winds to the Bahamas and Florida as it makes that curve north along the coast or partially over the east coast of Florida. No telling how much rain since this is a disorganized system. So we monitor and see what transpires with this disturbance.  

RTW 

Latest Update 0200 pm edt

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Near the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas:
A large tropical wave located over the Lesser Antilles continues to 
produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 
While development in the short-term is not anticipated as the system 
moves over portions of the Greater Antilles, environmental 
conditions are forecast to gradually become more conducive for 
development as the system moves generally west-northwestward towards 
the Bahamas and Cuba. A tropical depression could form this weekend 
or early next week when the system is in the vicinity of the Greater 
Antilles, Bahamas, or near Florida. Interests in the Greater 
Antilles, the Bahamas, and the southeastern U.S. should monitor the 
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

..TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE JULY 30 2024..

 

Good morning. I hope you are all having a blessed day. Well, so far, the dry air continues to hinder the development of this system, but I am seeing scattered, isolated showers beginning to develop within the broad circulation. The EURO and ICON models do not seem to show much development with this system, maybe a tropical depression, but a tropical storm can't be ruled out. Conditions in the upper-levels are somewhat favorable where it is located now and as it approaches the western Bahamas and the Florida coast. So some development is expected. GFS shows development in the Gulf of Mexico east of Florida. To me, all this is simply speculation at this time, so we all should continue to monitor updates from NHC at 0800 AM, 0200 PM, and O800 PM EDT daily.

RTW

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Near the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas:
A large tropical wave centered several hundred miles east of the 
Lesser Antilles is producing limited shower activity due to 
environmental dry air.  Conditions are forecast to become a little 
more conducive for development over the warmer waters of the 
southwestern Atlantic Ocean, and a tropical depression could form 
late this week while the system is in the vicinity of the Greater 
Antilles or the Bahamas.  Interests in the Greater Antilles, the 
Bahamas, and the southeastern U.S. should monitor the progress of 
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.


Forecaster Cangialosi

-----------------------------------------------------------------

143 
ACCA62 KNHC 301144
TWOSAT

Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones del Tiempo en el Trópico
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL
800 AM EDT martes 30 de julio de 2024

Para el Atlántico Norte...Mar Caribe y el Golfo de México:

Cerca de las Antillas Mayores y las Bahamas: Una gran onda tropical
centrada varios cientos de millas al este de las Antillas Menores
está produciendo una actividad limitada de aguaceros debido al aire
seco ambiental. Se pronostica que las condiciones se volverán un
poco más propicias para el desarrollo sobre las aguas más cálidas
del Océano Atlántico suroeste, y podría formarse una depresión
tropical esta semana mientras el sistema se encuentre en las
cercanías de las Grandes Antillas o de las Bahamas. Los intereses en
las Grandes Antillas, las Bahamas y el sureste de Estados Unidos
deben monitorear el progreso de este sistema.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 48 horas...baja...cerca del 0 por
ciento.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 7 días...medio...60 por ciento.

$$
Pronosticador Cangialosi

*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un
programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El
Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión
del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es
siempre la versión autorizada. ***

..TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE JULY 29, 2024..

 

We remain in monitor daily mode since we don't have any idea how strong or where this storm system will end up. All we have is a small area of disturbed weather that is located east of the CORRECTION east of the Leeward not Windward Islands. A tropical wave behind this disturbance will be passing over this disturbance, and the interaction with this system will enhance storm activity. As it is at this time, this system is also interacting with Saharan dust, which is hindering development. This system is forecast to track west-northwest in the coming days, and as it approaches the northern Leeward Islands, conditions could be more favorable for a tropical depression to form. Euro Ensemble models are showing this system curving north and northeast along the east coast of the U.S.; however, since there is no center of circulation and no actual storm yet, these tracks are meaningless at this time. What you should be concentrating on at this time is preparations around your home, checking your plan of action, and getting yourself and your family ready in case this system strengthens and tracks your way. 

Monitor the National Hurricane Center website daily for the latest on this and other storm systems this season.

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 291119
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Near the Leeward Islands and Greater Antilles:
An area of disturbed weather over the central tropical Atlantic 
Ocean is expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave 
during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions are 
forecast to become conducive for some development thereafter, and a 
tropical depression could form later this week while the system is 
in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles or the Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

486 
ACCA62 KNHC 291121
TWOSAT

Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones del Tiempo en el Trópico
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL
800 AM EDT lunes 29 de julio de 2024

Para el Atlántico Norte...Mar Caribe y el Golfo de México:

Cerca de las Islas de Sotavento y las Grandes Antillas: Se espera
que un área de tiempo perturbado sobre el Océano Atlántico tropical
central interactúe con una onda tropical que se acerca durante los
próximos dos días. Se pronostica que las condiciones ambientales se
volverán propicias para algún desarrollo a partir de entonces, y una
depresión tropical podría formarse más tarde esta semana mientras el
sistema está en las cercanías de las Grandes Antillas.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 48 horas...baja...cerca del 0 por
ciento.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 7 días...medio...50 por ciento.

$$
Pronosticador Cangialosi

*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un
programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El
Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión
del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es
siempre la versión autorizada. ***

REMEMBER THIS GRAPHIC DOES NOT SHOW A POSSIBLE TRACK BUT A POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT 

AREA OF WHERE THIS SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP. RTW

..TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE JULY 26, 2024..

 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles:
An area of disturbed weather over the central tropical Atlantic 
Ocean is expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave 
during the next several days.  Some development of this system will 
be possible while it approaches the Lesser Antilles during the 
early to middle part of next week and moves generally 
west-northwestward near the Greater Antilles toward the latter part 
of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Berg

-------------------------------------------------------------------

721 
ACCA62 KNHC 261729
TWOSAT

Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones del Tiempo en el Trópico
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL
200 PM EDT viernes 26 de julio de 2024

Para el Atlántico Norte...Mar Caribe y el Golfo de México:

Cerca de las Antillas Menores y Mayores: Se espera que un área de
tiempo perturbado sobre el Océano Atlántico tropical central
interactúe con una onda tropical que se acerca durante los próximos
días. Será posible algún desarrollo de este sistema mientras se
acerca a las Antillas Menores durante la parte temprana a media de
la próxima semana y se mueve generalmente hacia el oeste-noroeste
cerca de las Antillas Mayores hacia la última parte de la semana.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 48 horas...baja...cerca del 0 por
ciento.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 7 días...baja...20 por ciento.

$$
Pronosticador Berg

*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un
programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El
Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión
del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es
siempre la versión autorizada. ***